* PCE inflation gauge due on Thursday
* Salesforce ( CRM ), Costco, Best Buy ( BBY ) among reports due as
robust Q1 comes to end
* Bond market selloff in view as Treasury yields hit
milestones
By Lewis Krauskopf
NEW YORK, May 22 (Reuters) - High-flying U.S. equities
could face turbulence in the final days of a blowout corporate
earnings season as investors confront an increasingly tricky
backdrop of spiking inflation and rising bond yields.
The benchmark S&P 500 wobbled this week but was close to
its all-time high,up more than 9% for the year. The index has
posted eight straight weekly gains.
Strength in earnings has allowed investors to look past
negative factors such as higher yields, surging oil prices and
the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, said Anthony Saglimbene,
chief market strategist at Ameriprise, but "company reporting is
kind of done now."
"Investors are moving beyond the earnings season, and the macro
environment is starting to take more center stage," Saglimbene
said, ahead of a shortened trading week due to the Memorial Day
holiday on Monday.
A selloff in the bond market has Wall Street on edge. The
benchmark 10-year Treasury yield this week hit its
highest level since January 2025, while the 30-year yield
touched its highest since 2007, although both yields
pulled back toward the end of the week. Yields, which rise as
bond prices fall, pose headwinds for stocks as they increase
rapidly, including by pressuring valuations and translating into
higher borrowing costs for consumers and businesses.
Major factors driving yields higher have been inflationary
worries and war-related energy price spikes.
"Inflation concerns continue to flare," said Jim Baird,
chief investment officer with Plante Moran Financial Advisors.
"You're seeing upside in long-term Treasury yields that is kind
of challenging the bond market and probably puts a practical lid
on equities broadly if it persists for some period of time."
US INFLATION MEASURE ON TAP
A view of inflation is due on Thursday with the April reading of
the personal consumption expenditures price index. The release
of PCE, the measure favored by the Federal Reserve for setting
its 2% annual inflation target, follows hot readings this month
for other gauges of consumer and producer prices.
"It will be another data point that likely shows that months
of elevated oil prices and supply disruptions are starting to
feed through into inflation data," Saglimbene said.
Inflation worries are increasingly filtering into
expectations for interest rates. Futures markets now price in
the potential for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve later in
2026. At the start of this year, markets were banking on more
equity-friendly rate cuts.
Minutes released this week from the Fed's latest policy
meeting showed officials growing more concerned that price
spikes during the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran could stoke
inflation. A growing number were open to the possibility that
they may need to raise rates.
"At best, I'd say you're now in more of an extended pause
scenario with the potential for a turn to rate hikes later this
year if the inflation story continues to heat up," Baird said.
Other economic data in the coming week include a fresh
estimate of first-quarter growth and the latest consumer
confidence print.
COSTCO, SALESFORCE ENDING A STANDOUT Q1
With more than 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported results,
overall first-quarter earnings are on track to have jumped 29%
from a year earlier, according to LSEG IBES data.
"I would say expectations for earnings and economic growth
are pretty high," said Scott Wren, senior global market
strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. "That's built
into where stock prices are right now."
Several key retailers will report in the coming week, including
Costco, Best Buy ( BBY ) and Dollar Tree ( DLTR ), as
investors look for signs that elevated gas prices might be
eating away at other consumer spending. Walmart ( WMT ) shares
slumped on Thursday after the retailing bellwether stuck to its
conservative annual sales and profit targets.
AI, which has been a key driver of stocks and earnings
growth, will also be in focus with results from cloud software
provider Salesforce ( CRM ) and Dell Technologies ( DELL ),
which sells servers.
Chipmaker Nvidia, whose results are considered a
barometer for the AI market's health, on Wednesday forecast
second-quarter revenue of $91 billion, surpassing Wall Street's
estimates.
Nvidia's ( NVDA ) "results help reinforce that robust AI-related
spending trends remain intact," Brock Weimer, investment
strategy analyst at Edward Jones, said in emailed commentary.