NEW YORK, Nov 1 (Reuters) - A double dose of potentially

market-moving events arrives in the coming week as Americans

vote on their next president and the Federal Reserve offers more

insight on the path of interest rates at its monetary policy

meeting.

The Nov. 5 vote culminates an election cycle that has

captivated the country and sparked swings in corners of

financial markets. Among these has been the waxing and waning of

the so-called Trump trade, a bevy of asset price moves

reflecting sentiment that Republican Donald Trump is gaining

momentum in his race against Democrat Kamala Harris for the U.S.

presidency.

Those trades have included a rise in the U.S. dollar and a

sell-off in Treasuries possibly fueled by strong economic data

and a bitcoin surge spurred by hopes that Trump would deregulate

the crypto industry.

Still, polls remain deadlocked and bets leaning toward Trump

were narrowing at the end of the week. Some investors expect

volatility to accompany next week's vote, no matter the result.

"In either scenario, it seems like there's some near-term

risk," said Walter Todd, chief investment officer at Greenwood

Capital.

Todd said a win by the Republican could be a "sell the news"

event that sparks profit-taking in Trump trades. A win by Harris

could spark a more serious unwind, he said.

Control of Congress will also be determined with Tuesday's

vote, adding another wrinkle for investors as they weigh how

various political outcomes could impact assets over the longer

term, with the two candidates offering starkly different paths

for the U.S. economy.

For example, the expectation that Trump would seek to lower

regulations stands to benefit banks, while higher tariffs could

benefit domestically focused small-cap companies while ramping

up the potential for volatility in broader markets.

Expectations that Harris would be more supportive of clean

energy initiatives means solar and other renewable energy stocks

could rise in the event she prevails, analysts said.

Investors are also wary of volatility from an election

result that is not immediately clear due to the closeness of the

race or is contested by one of the parties. In 2020, Trump tried

to overturn the results of his loss to President Joe Biden,

falsely claiming it was the result of voter fraud in multiple

states.

"The market did fine under Trump. It can do fine under

Harris," said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota

Wealth. "We just need clarity."

FED AHEAD

Thursday's Fed decision on monetary policy looms as another

risk for the S&P 500's rally of some 20% this year, though mixed

earnings from several tech giants this week led the index to end

October in the red, following five straight months of gains.

Fed funds futures trading shows the market expects the U.S.

central bank to cut its benchmark policy rate by a modest 25

basis points, LSEG data showed, after easing rates in September

for the first time in four years.

For many investors, the focus will be on guidance from Fed

Chair Jerome Powell, including whether the central bank might

consider pausing its rate-cutting cycle at future meetings in

light of strong economic data.

Citigroup's ( C/PN ) economic surprise index, which

measures how economic data performs versus expectations, is at

its highest level since April. Data this week showed the U.S.

economy grew at a solid 2.8% pace in the third quarter.

Friday's monthly employment report, the last key piece of

data before the Fed meeting, ran counter to that trend as it

showed job growth almost stalled in October. The data, however,

was clouded by aerospace industry strikes and hurricanes that

impacted the response rate for the payrolls survey.

"This week's data ... suggest the reasoning for a cut is

still valid," JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli said in a note.

"Even if the election is decided by Thursday, we think there are

enough uncertainties in the outlook to warrant a cautious

approach to forward guidance" from the Fed.