NEW YORK, May 3 (Reuters) - The prospect of interest

rates remaining elevated as the Federal Reserve battles

inflation is further clouding the outlook for shares of smaller

U.S. companies, which have lagged broader markets this year.

Small cap stocks surged at the end of 2023, as expectations

grew that the Fed was done raising interest rates and would soon

begin easing monetary policy. That would be a welcome change for

smaller companies, which rely more heavily on debt financing and

consumer spending.

But stubbornly strong inflation has eroded prospects of rate

cuts this year, and small cap stocks have suffered as a result.

The Russell 2000 is up just 0.4% year-to-date, far less than the

S&P 500's 7.5% gain. Earnings are also expected to be shaky,

giving investors little reason to shift allocations from larger

companies and other, less risky parts of their portfolios.

"Investors are skeptical right now about small cap stocks

because of higher rates and stickier inflation, and they need

greater clarity that the Fed will be cutting rates this year

before moving in," said Michael Arone, Chief Investment

Strategist for State Street's SPDR Business, who has been buying

small caps in anticipation of rate cuts later in the year.

The case for smaller stocks may have improved over the last

few days. U.S. employment data on Friday showed that jobs

growth, while still relatively robust, slowed last month, easing

fears that rates will remain elevated for the rest of the year.

The Russell 2000 was up about 1% on the day.

On Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said he still

believed rates were heading lower this year, despite stubborn

inflation.

Futures markets on Friday showed investors pricing in around

45 basis points of interest rate cuts this year, from less than

30 priced in earlier this week. That remained far lower than the

150 points they had priced in January.

Stronger-than-expected earnings in coming weeks could help

allay investor concerns. Overall, the Russell 2000 is expected

to post earning growth of -8.4% over the most recent quarter,

compared with a 10.2% earnings growth rate for the S&P 500,

according to LSEG data. At the same, the Russell 2000 is trading

at a forward price to earnings ratio of 22 compared with a 20

times earnings multiple for the S&P 500, making small-caps more

expensive.

"The earnings pickup we expected has just not been there,"

said David Lefkowitz, CIO Head of US Equities at UBS Global

Wealth Management, who has been overweight small caps since

December. "I still think the preference for small makes sense,

but it depends on your rate view."

Among the notable small cap companies reporting in the week

ahead are nutrition company Bellring Brands ( BRBR ), gambling

company Light & Wonder ( LNW ) and oil and natural gas company

Permian Resources ( PR ).

Larger caps reporting next week include Walt Disney ( DIS ),

Wynn Resorts ( WYNN ) and Akamai Technologies ( AKAM ), as US

corporate earnings season continues.

Despite the encouraging developments of the last few days,

few believe the path to rate cuts is clear.

Jill Carey Hall, equity & quant strategist at Bofa Global

Research, said investors buying small caps should focus on

companies positioned to withstand an extended Fed pause,

including those with higher percentages of fixed dent and

comparatively low leverage.

"It's too soon to price in more rate cuts," said Timothy

Chubb, chief investment officer at Girard. "One number doesn't

make a trend. Overall, the Fed is getting the evidence it

needs."