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CPI report for May due on Wednesday

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Fiscal bill in focus amid Trump-Musk rift

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S&P 500 about 3% from February record high

By Lewis Krauskopf

NEW YORK, June 6 (Reuters) - The U.S. stock rebound has

driven key indexes to the cusp of record levels, with fresh

economic data and trade and fiscal policy developments set to

test whether equities will get an extra push higher in the near

term.

A monthly U.S. inflation report headlines the events for

markets in the coming week.

Equities have bounced back from a steep fall in April,

sparked by concerns about the economic fallout from President

Donald Trump's tariff plans. Stocks hit a speed bump on Thursday

as a public rift between Trump and Tesla chief Elon

Musk sent shares of the electric vehicle maker down 14%.

The benchmark S&P 500 ended on Thursday just over 3%

off its record closing high from February. It closed down 0.5%

on the day as Tesla's tumble offset news of progress in tariff

talks between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

"I'd still say it's a cautious tone" in the market, said Jim

Baird, chief investment officer with Plante Moran Financial

Advisors. Despite a "recovery off the lows, I still think it's a

market that is looking for greater clarity."

Some uncertainty stems from how the U.S. economy is

weathering the shifting trade backdrop. Trump has eased back on

some of the harshest tariffs since his April 2 "Liberation Day"

announcement sent stocks tumbling, but investors are waiting to

see how other levies may be rippling through the economy.

The consumer price index report for May, due on Wednesday,

could give insight into the tariff impact at a time investors

are wary of any flare-ups in inflation.

"Consumers are feeling the impact of higher prices and if

there are indications that near-term inflation could

re-accelerate, that is going to put further pressure on

discretionary spending and ultimately could lead to a more

pronounced slowdown in growth," Baird said.

The CPI report will be one of the last key pieces of data

before the Federal Reserve's June 17-18 meeting. The U.S.

central bank is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at

that meeting, but traders are pricing in about two 25-basis

point cuts by the end of the year.

"If we see inflationary data that defies what people are

concerned about based on this tariff talk and it comes in

cooler, then that could also be a catalyst to at least test

those old highs," said Jay Woods, chief global strategist at

Freedom Capital Markets.

For the year, the S&P 500 is up about 1%. But the index has

stormed back over 19% since April 8, at the depth of the stock

market's plunge on concerns over the tariff fallout.

Investors also are grappling with uncertainty over a

sweeping tax-cut and spending bill under review in the U.S.

Senate. Wall Street is monitoring how much the legislation could

stimulate economic growth, but also inflate the country's debt

burden as widening fiscal deficits have become a central concern

for markets in recent weeks.

"As debt increases, it has a greater negative impact on

growth," said Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist at Man

Group.

The legislation also appeared to be the source of a severe

rift between Trump and Musk, who had been his strong ally. Musk

called the bill at the heart of Trump's agenda a "disgusting

abomination," while Trump said he was "disappointed" by the

billionaire's public opposition.

Trade talks also remain at the forefront of markets, with a

90-day pause on a wide array of Trump's tariffs set to end on

July 8.

"When it comes to policy from Washington, D.C., there are

still big question marks," said Bob Doll, chief investment

office at Crossmark Global Investments.