* S&P 500, Nasdaq post best months since 2020
* AMD, Palantir, Disney ( DIS ) among reports due next week
* US jobs data due after hawkish Fed turn
By Lewis Krauskopf
NEW YORK, May 1 (Reuters) - Investors will look for
another batch of earnings reports and fresh employment data to
drive a resilient U.S. stocks rally higher next week, in the
face of spiking oil prices and a more hawkish Federal Reserve.
Major U.S. stock indexes ended the week at record-high
levels, following a sharp month-long rebound from concerns about
economic fallout from the Middle East war. A stellar season for
corporate profits is underpinning bullishness for U.S. equities
and countering other market headwinds.
The benchmark S&P 500 and the technology-heavy Nasdaq
Composite both ended April on Thursday with their
biggest monthly gains since 2020. The S&P 500 rose more than 10%
in April, while the Nasdaq jumped over 15%, and both indexes on
Friday kicked off May with gains.
"We have these fast-rising profits on one side, and then on
the other, we have upward pressures on oil prices and bond
yields," said Angelo Kourkafas, senior global investment
strategist at Edward Jones. "We've rallied a lot in April, so
potentially we may enter some period of consolidation as this
pull and push is playing out."
Stocks this week largely shrugged off a renewed surge in oil
prices with benchmark Brent crude topping $120 a barrel
and hitting a four-year high before pulling back. Energy markets
were poised to swing on developments in the two-month
U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, which has choked off a major supply
of oil. While a ceasefire agreement helped catalyze the stock
market's rebound, continued tensions in the Middle East were
poised to keep investors on edge.
"With each passing day, the economic risk grows," said Jeff
Buchbinder, chief equity strategist for LPL Financial. "If we're
sitting here in a month or two, and Brent crude is still over
$120, and we've still got a blockade and maybe bombs are still
falling, that is a very different scenario than what we're
looking at right now."
ANOTHER BIG EARNINGS WEEK
More than 100 companies in the S&P 500 are set to post
results next week, with markets digesting the heart of the
reporting season. Overall S&P 500 earnings as of Friday were on
track to have climbed 27.8% in the first quarter from a year
ago, according to Tajinder Dhillon, head of earnings and equity
research at LSEG Data & Analytics. That is set to be the highest
profit growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2021.
This week, megacap companies investing in
artificial-intelligence infrastructure reported results that
yielded mixed market reactions. Shares of Alphabet
jumped on Thursday after the Google parent showed blowout
cloud-computing growth, while shares of Microsoft ( MSFT ) and
Meta Platforms ( META ) slumped after less stellar results.
Data analytics firm Palantir, entertainment company
Walt Disney ( DIS ) and restaurant chain McDonald's are
among the high-profile companies due to report next week.
Results from chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices ( AMD ) will
also be in focus, given recent eye-popping gains for its shares
as well as those of other semiconductor companies, said Michael
O'Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading. Since the end
of March, AMD shares have soared more than 80% and the
Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index is up about 48%.
"This is the group that is dominating the tape and
dominating the market," O'Rourke said. "Any datapoints you get
are going to be really important."
JOBS IN FOCUS AS RATE-CUT HOPES DIM
The payrolls report for April, due on May 8, is expected to
show growth of 60,000 jobs, according to economists polled by
Reuters as of Friday. That would be a step down from the 178,000
added in March, but an improvement over the sharp employment
decline in February.
"It's a slow job market, but the job market is still hanging
in there," Buchbinder said.
Data on Thursday showed U.S. economic growth picked up in the
first quarter, as the AI spending boom helped to lift business
investment in equipment.
The fresh jobs data will follow signs that equity-friendly
interest rate cuts may be harder to come by this year. This
week's Federal Reserve meeting revealed a surprisingly divided
U.S. central bank, as three board members objected to language
in the Fed's policy statement they felt did not take adequate
account of inflation risks that might require a rate hike.
That hawkish turn, combined with surging oil prices, pushed
benchmark U.S. Treasury yields to one-month highs. The yield on
the widely followed 10-year Treasury was around 4.38% late on
Friday. Higher yields could pose problems for equities,
including by translating into higher borrowing costs for
consumers and businesses.
"The 10-year above 4.5% will certainly catch more investors'
attention," Kourkafas said. "At that point, investors might
start rethinking valuations and get a little more worried."