*
Q3 earnings pick up, Netflix ( NFLX ) on Tuesday, Tesla due
Wednesday
*
Delayed Sept CPI release out on Friday
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Focus also on US-China trade developments, regional banks
(Updates with Trump-China, banking developments, latest market
data)
By Lewis Krauskopf
NEW YORK, Oct 17 (Reuters) -
Earnings reports next week, including from Tesla
and Netflix ( NFLX ), will provide a deeper look at U.S.
corporate profits while delayed U.S. inflation data will mark
another test of the stock market, which has become shakier even
as it remains around record highs.
The fourth year of the S&P 500's bull run kicked off this
week with some significant gyrations after a long period of
market calm.
Revived U.S.-China trade tensions and credit concerns at
regional U.S. banks drove the anxiety. The CBOE market
volatility index, known as Wall Street's "fear gauge",
has surged in recent days and hit its highest level in nearly
six months on Friday.
"The market is becoming more volatile, but it's also coming
off of a very non-volatile period where we didn't have a lot of
risk catalysts bubbling to the top," said Michael Reynolds, vice
president of investment strategy at Glenmede.
"Once you have valuations hit sort of full levels, as we're
seeing now almost across the board, you have to be on the
lookout for incremental risk catalysts."
The spark for the latest volatility was a surprise resurgence in
U.S.-China trade tensions. Stocks slumped late last week after
the U.S. threatened to significantly hike tariffs by November 1
over China's rare-earth export controls.
The U.S.-China trade issue will be key for markets in the
coming week, said Doug Beath, global equity strategist at Wells
Fargo Investment Institute. U.S. President Donald Trump
confirmed on Friday that he would meet with Chinese President Xi
Jinping in two weeks in South Korea.
Sharp swings in
global financial shares
to end the week also kept investors on edge as they weighed
the extent of credit concerns emerging from regional U.S. banks.
Major stock indexes posted weekly gains and are on pace for
strong years. The benchmark S&P 500 is up 13.3% year-to-date and
1.3% below its record high. But there are signs the market is
weakening under the surface.
The percentage of S&P 500 stocks in some form of an uptrend
declined from 77% in early July to 57% as of Tuesday while the
number of stocks in a downtrend increased from 23% to 44% over
that time, according to Adam Turnquist, chief technical
strategist for LPL Financial.
That "narrowing gap highlights emerging cracks in the market's
foundation," Turnquist said in written commentary. Similarly,
Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist at Charles Schwab,
said he will be watching how broadly based the market's gains
are going forward.
"If you have a fewer number of companies that are actually
moving higher, but the indexes do move higher because of the
megacaps, that's a really important divergence," Gordon said.
Attention will be on third-quarter earnings after major
banks started the reporting season on a strong note. Aside from
streaming giant Netflix ( NFLX ) and electric vehicle maker Tesla, other
companies due to report in the coming week include consumer
companies Procter & Gamble ( PG ) and Coca-Cola,
aerospace and defense giant RTX and tech stalwart IBM ( IBM )
.
The corporate results and executive comments will offer insight
into the economy as the U.S. government shutdown has stopped
economic data releases since October 1, including monthly
employment data.
Corporate "reports and what companies say is really our best
chance at assessing what the broader economic health is," Gordon
said.
The government has said it will release the U.S. consumer price
index for September on Friday, nine days late, saying the CPI
data allows the Social Security Administration to meet deadlines
for timely payment of benefits.
The CPI report, which is a closely watched inflation gauge, will
be released days before the Federal Reserve's next monetary
policy meeting on October 28-29. The U.S. central bank is widely
expected to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point
again, after weakening jobs data prompted the Fed to lower rates
last month for the first time this year.
"We'd really have to see something out of left field in
terms of notable inflation pressures to knock the Fed off of a
rate cut path at the October meeting," Glenmede's Reynolds said.