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Wall St Week Ahead-Walmart to shed light on consumer health as inflation bites, tariffs swirl
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Wall St Week Ahead-Walmart to shed light on consumer health as inflation bites, tariffs swirl
Feb 16, 2025 6:31 AM

NEW YORK, Feb 14 (Reuters) - Walmart's ( WMT ) quarterly report

in the coming week will give investors fresh insight into the

health of U.S. consumers, who are facing stronger inflation and

uncertainty over whether President Donald Trump's tariffs will

push up prices.

The benchmark S&P 500 stock index was up about 1% for

the week, with stocks showing resilience despite a hot report on

consumer prices that led investors to push back expectations of

further interest rate cuts this year.

Wall Street closely watches trends in consumer spending,

which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic

activity. The extent to which inflation is weighing on shopping

behavior could become more evident with Thursday's earnings

report from retailer Walmart ( WMT ).

"Walmart ( WMT ) is sort of a canary in the coal mine as far as

consumer spending and consumer health is concerned," said Robert

Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth.

Walmart's ( WMT ) report could show "how much of higher food prices

and higher gasoline or energy prices is digging into the

discretionary spending of consumers," Pavlik said.

The S&P 500 has climbed more than 3% this year, with broad

gains among sectors. Investors have digested a flurry of policy

announcements from the Trump administration, including on

tariffs and federal government cost cuts, and more recently,

discouraging data on inflation.

Stocks sold off modestly on Wednesday after a report showed

consumer prices in January jumped by the most in nearly 1-1/2

years, with Americans facing higher costs for a range of goods

and services.

The CPI data came on the heels of a survey that revealed

U.S. consumer sentiment sank in February to a seven-month low as

inflation expectations soared. Households feared it may be too

late to avoid the negative effects from Trump's threatened

tariffs, according to the survey's director.

Company executives are grappling with the potential fallout

from tariffs. Since the beginning of the year, nearly 430

companies in the S&P 1500 have either mentioned tariffs or

responded to a question about tariffs on earnings calls or at

investor events, according to LSEG data.

WALMART IN FOCUS

Walmart ( WMT ), as the most important consumer company in the

country along with Amazon ( AMZN ), will be closely watched for

its commentary, said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at

Miller Tabak.

"It's not just what their numbers are and their guidance,

but what they say about the consumer," Maley said.

Walmart's ( WMT ) comments could help address whether people are "so

worried about tariffs that they're starting to question some of

their spending," Maley said.

A Walmart ( WMT ) spokesperson declined to comment, saying the

company was in a quiet period ahead of its earnings report.

Walmart's ( WMT ) report will be followed by results in the next few

weeks from a range of consumer companies, including home

improvement company Home Depot ( HD ), off-price retailer TJX

Cos ( TJX ) and Target ( TGT ), that will also wind down

fourth-quarter reporting season for corporate America.

With nearly three-fourths of index companies having

reported, S&P 500 earnings are on track to have climbed 15.2%

from the year-earlier period, its strongest pace in three years,

according to LSEG IBES data.

Still, expectations for S&P 500 profits in 2025 have

moderated since the start of the year, which some investors said

has undercut optimism from the fourth-quarter reports.

The potential impact from import tariffs - which are

expected to weigh on profits and drive up inflation - is poised

to remain prominent on Wall Street's radar in the coming week.

Trump has announced a 10% tariff on China and a broad duty on

steel and aluminum imports, while delaying tariffs on Mexico and

Canada.

"No one's quite sure what's a negotiation and what's the

policy," said Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments.

Hedge funds and other large investors, he said, "don't want to

be caught short only to see a reversal in policy that causes the

market to come right back."

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