The southern Indian state of Karnataka is set to hold its assembly elections, and two pre-poll surveys predict a majority for the Congress. The surveys by ABP C-Voter and Eedina show the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) losing its hold on power, with the Congress gaining ground.

The ABP C-Voter opinion poll predicts the BJP will win just 74 to 86 seats, down from 116 in the outgoing assembly, while the Congress is expected to win 107 to 119 seats, up from just 69 in the outgoing assembly. The Eedina poll shows similar numbers, with the Congress winning well above the 50 percent mark of 112 seats and the BJP getting about half of the 116 seats it won in the last assembly.

Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Narayana A, Professor at Azim Premji University, noted that the kind of anti-incumbency visible on the ground has not been seen since 1989. He believes that any government facing this level of anti-incumbency is unlikely to come back to power in Karnataka unless something drastically changes. According to him, the current situation does not favor the BJP, and surveys that predict a higher number of seats for the Congress may be considered more reliable at this point in time.

"The kind of anti-incumbency that is visible on the ground this time is something which has never been seen after 1989. Any government facing this kind of anti-incumbency is very unlikely to come back to power in Karnataka unless something drastically changes. Currently I don't see anything drastically changing in favour of the BJP. Therefore surveys which have given slightly higher number to Congress may be considered as more reliable at this point in time," Narayana said.

AK Bhattacharya, the Editorial Director of Business Standard, also commented on the significance of the Karnataka elections. He said that the elections are an important event in India's festival of democracy and that a win for the Congress and its coalition partners would have an impact on the national mood as far as politics is concerned.

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The Karnataka assembly elections are being closely watched as they could have implications for national politics. A loss in Karnataka could dent the BJP's image and embolden the opposition parties.

The Karnataka assembly elections are also important because of the state's economic and cultural significance. Karnataka is a major technology hub in India, with Bangalore being home to several IT giants. The state is also known for its rich cultural heritage, with several historical sites and monuments.

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First Published:May 5, 2023 7:56 PM IST