The Euro fell in the European market on Thursday against a basket of global currencies, deepening its losses for the third consecutive day against the U.S. dollar. The currency hit a three-week low as risk aversion persists among investors, who continue to favor the American dollar as the primary alternative investment due to reports that the U.S. is considering a sustained naval blockade on Iran.

The European Central Bank (ECB) concludes its third periodic monetary policy meeting of 2026 later today. Markets widely expect interest rates to remain on hold for the seventh consecutive meeting, while looking to the upcoming statement for further signals regarding the future path of interest rates this year.

Price Overview

Euro Exchange Rate Today: The Euro fell against the dollar by approximately 0.2% to ($1.1655), the lowest since April 9, from an opening price of ($1.1676), after recording a session high of ($1.1689).

The Euro ended Wednesday's trading down 0.3% against the dollar, marking its second daily loss following U.S. military threats of limited strikes on Iran and a hawkish Federal Reserve meeting.

The U.S. Dollar

The dollar index rose 0.15% on Thursday, extending gains for the third consecutive session to reach a three-week high. This reflects the ongoing ascent of the American currency against a basket of major and minor rivals.

This rise is driven by investors focusing on the U.S. dollar as a safe haven amid escalating fears that current peace talks between the U.S. and Iran have reached a deadlock, alongside the increasing likelihood of renewed military confrontations in the Middle East.

Efforts to end the war have hit an impasse, with Donald Trump expressing dissatisfaction with Tehran's latest proposal. The U.S. President insists on addressing the nuclear file as a core component of any peace agreement. Furthermore, President Trump discussed ways to limit the repercussions of the U.S. blockade on Iranian portswhich could extend for several monthswith major oil companies to ensure supply stability and reduce pressure on global energy markets.

Global Oil Prices

Oil prices continue to climb in global markets, with Brent crude reaching its highest level in six weeks amid fears of prolonged supply disruptions as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

Media reports suggest that the U.S. military will brief Trump later today on potential measures against Iran, which may include "short and powerful" military strikes targeting Iranian infrastructure.

European Central Bank

The ECB concludes its third monetary policy meeting of 2026 later today. Expectations are currently stable for keeping European interest rates unchanged at 2.15%, the lowest level since October 2022, marking the seventh consecutive meeting without a change.

The interest rate decision and policy statement are due at 12:15 GMT, followed by a press conference with ECB President Christine Lagarde at 12:45 GMT.

Euro Performance Forecast

We at "Economies.com" expect that if the ECBs comments come in less aggressive than market expectations, the probability of European interest rate hikes this year will decline. This would likely deepen the Euro's losses against a basket of global currencies.