The euro rose in European trading on Thursday against a basket of global currencies, moving into positive territory against the US dollar and heading toward its third gain in the last four sessions, ahead of the European Central Bank's policy decisions later today. The ECB is widely expected to announce its first interest rate increase since July 2023.

The US dollar weakened, while oil prices erased their gains after a new round of US strikes on Iran concluded and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz eased. Markets are now watching for any fresh developments in the ongoing peace negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

The Price

Euro exchange rate today: The euro rose about 0.2% against the dollar to $1.1556, up from an opening level of $1.1535, after touching an intraday low of $1.1526.

The euro ended Wednesday down 0.1% against the dollar, marking its first loss in the past three sessions after Donald Trump warned of potential new strikes against Iran.

US dollar

The US Dollar Index fell 0.2% on Thursday, resuming losses that were temporarily paused on Wednesday and moving further away from two-month highs, reflecting weakness in the US currency against a basket of major and minor peers.

The decline followed the conclusion of a new round of US strikes on Iran, which are being viewed as part of a pressure strategy aimed at encouraging Iranian authorities to make greater progress in ongoing peace negotiations, potentially paving the way for a final agreement that could reduce tensions and enhance stability across the Middle East.

Global oil prices

Global oil prices surrendered most of their early gains on Thursday after the United States denied reports that the Strait of Hormuz had been closed to shipping traffic, helping to ease concerns about disruptions to global energy supplies.

Developments in the Iran conflict

The United States launched new airstrikes on Iran for a second consecutive day.

Prior to the attack, President Donald Trump said the United States would carry out a "very strong" strike against Iran.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Washington would target "vital facilities."

The attacks represent one of the most serious escalations since the April ceasefire.

Irans Revolutionary Guard said US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain were targeted with drones and missiles.

Tehran announced the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to security concerns, while Washington denied that the strait had been closed.

European Central Bank

Later today, the European Central Bank will conclude its fourth monetary policy meeting of 2026. Markets fully expect an interest rate increase, while the accompanying statement is expected to provide further guidance and clarification on the future path of rates throughout the year.

Current expectations point to a 25-basis-point rate hike, raising the ECB's key rate from 2.15% to 2.40%. It would mark the first interest rate increase in the eurozone since July 2023, following seven consecutive meetings in which rates were left unchanged.

The ECB's rate decision and monetary policy statement are due at 12:15 GMT, while ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to hold a press conference at 12:45 GMT.

Outlook for the euro

At Economies.com, we expect that if the European Central Bank delivers more hawkish comments than markets currently anticipate, expectations for an additional rate increase later this year will rise, helping to extend the euros gains against a basket of global currencies.