The euro rose in European trading on Monday against a basket of major currencies, attempting to recover from a two-week low against the US dollar, supported by bargain-hunting at lower levels and by a pause in the dollars recent advance ahead of key US inflation data.

With uncertainty still surrounding the likelihood of a European Central Bank rate cut in December, investors are awaiting a closely watched speech later today from ECB President Christine Lagarde, which is expected to offer new clues on the eurozones monetary-policy path.

Price Overview

EUR/USD rose 0.15% to 1.1528$, up from an opening level of 1.1511$, after touching a session low of 1.1502$.

The euro ended Fridays session down 0.15% against the dollar, marking a sixth straight daily loss and hitting a two-week low at 1.1491$, pressured by weak industrial and services data across Europe.

For the week, the euro fell 0.95% its biggest weekly decline since late July as investors concentrated on buying the US dollar as the most attractive asset in the current environment.

US Dollar

The dollar index dipped 0.1% on Monday, pulling back from a six-month high at 100.40, reflecting a pause in the American currencys upward momentum.

Beyond profit-taking, investors are reluctant to build new long positions ahead of key US inflation data, which is expected to offer clearer evidence on whether the Federal Reserve will maintain rates unchanged in December.

European Rates

Market pricing currently reflects around a 25% probability of a 25-basis-point ECB rate cut in December.

Investors are awaiting additional eurozone data on inflation, unemployment, and wages to reassess these expectations.

ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a key speech later today, expected to cover recent inflation developments and the outlook for European interest rates.

Outlook for the Euro

According to Economies.com: if Lagardes comments sound less hawkish, expectations for a December ECB rate cut would strengthen, placing additional downward pressure on the euro against a basket of currencies.