financetom
News
financetom
/
News
/
The silver lining in China's dark clouds: Lower costs
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
The silver lining in China's dark clouds: Lower costs
Jul 9, 2012 12:40 AM

China's latest inflation numbers suggest the economy is cooling faster than economists expected, but the drop in producer prices by a steeper-than-expected 2.1% in June could provide a boost for corporate margins, according to experts.

Producer pricesdeclined for the fourth straight month in June and economists tell CNBC that means lower commodities and input costs for manufacturers.

"The real key here is as we see prices come off, particularly producer prices, it does provide some cushion to manufacturing margins," Ben Simpfendorfer, Managing Director of Silk Road Associates, an economic consultancy firm, told CNBC Asia's"The Call". At the same time, consumer inflation cooled to 2.2% in June, from 3% in May, official data showed on Monday, giving the Chinese central bank more scope to ease monetary policy to support growth without stoking fears of excessive price increases.

"There is a big backstop here, and that is the government. They can cut rates, they can ease credit, they can expand fiscal stimulus, so there is support for the economy over the next six months," Simpfendorfer said.

In fact, some economists are expecting theconsumer price index (CPI) to continue declining in the third quarter from June's levels, providing more room for policy easing, especially after Beijing's leaders signaled that they need to be more aggressive to achieve the 7.5% target this year for GDP growth.

"We expect CPI to drop further in July to less than 2%," Nomura Chief China Economist Zhiwei Zhang said. "Lower CPI opened room for further policy easing, which we expect will pick up. In particular Premier Wen 's comments over the weekend point to stronger public investments in coming months."

Nomura expects inflation to average 2.8%, 1.9% and 2.9% in the second, third and fourth quarters of the year, respectively.

Wen said on Sunday that China needs to make aggressive efforts to fine-tune its economic policies in order to support its economy, suggesting that Beijing will take further action to fight "huge downward pressure."

His remarks came days after China's central bank slashed interest rates for the second time in a month on Thursday. Economists interpret the surprise cut as a signal that GDP growth for the second quarter, to be released on Friday, will be the weaker than expected.

Economists polled by Reuters, say China`s economy will grow 7.6% in the second quarter from a year ago. That would mark the slowest quarter of expansion since the three months to March 2009, at the depths of the global financial crisis.

Both Simpfendorfer and Zhang think the market is being too negative about China`s economic data.

"We believe investors are becoming too bearish on the outlook for China's economy in the second half," Zhang said. "No doubt the economy slowed further in the second quarter, many growth indicators look weak, but there are also positive signs that should not be ignored."

Nomura is standing by its view that the Chinese economy has bottomed out in the second quarter, and will rebound from 7.8% in the second quarter to 8.6% in the third quarter and 8.9% in the fourth. The bank expects growth of 8.4% for the whole of 2012.

- By CNBC`s Jean Chua.

Copyright 2011 cnbc.com

First Published:Jul 9, 2012 9:40 AM IST

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
​​​​​​Dow Muted in Early Trading, while Nasdaq 100 Returns to Recent Highs and Nikkei 225 Makes Progress
​​​​​​Dow Muted in Early Trading, while Nasdaq 100 Returns to Recent Highs and Nikkei 225 Makes Progress
Jun 11, 2024
Dow Jones 30, Nasdaq 100, Nikkei 225 Analysis and Charts ​​​Dow stabilises but struggles to move higher ​After dropping back on Friday the index managed to recover on Monday, holding above the lows of Friday’s session. ​This allows the price to begin a move back towards the previous highs at 40,000, so long as the 50-day simple moving average (SMA)...
FOMC Preview: Dot Plot to Reveal Fewer Rate Cuts in 2024
FOMC Preview: Dot Plot to Reveal Fewer Rate Cuts in 2024
Jun 11, 2024
FOMC Decides Rate Outlook: FOMC almost certain to leave rates unchanged in light of stubborn inflation, robust jobsSummary of economic projections likely to validate market perceptions of a delayed first rate cutA hawkish Fed message may extend the dollars recent ascent but the inflation data may complicate matters in the lead up Fed to Stay the Course and Delay Timing...
USD/JPY Drifts Higher, Will the BoJ Announce Bond Tapering at Friday’s Policy Meeting?
USD/JPY Drifts Higher, Will the BoJ Announce Bond Tapering at Friday’s Policy Meeting?
Jun 11, 2024
USD/JPY Analysis and Charts Japanese Yen Prices, Charts, and Analysis The Bank of Japan may announce that it is cutting back its bond purchases.USD/JPY traders will also need to follow US data and Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Recommended by Nick Cawley Get Your Free JPY Forecast With the USD/JPY exchange rate approaching levels that could cause concern for Japanese authorities, there...
Aussie resumes losses after grim data
Aussie resumes losses after grim data
Jun 11, 2024
The Australian dollar resumed its losses in Asian trade on Tuesday against a basket of major rivals, approaching five-week lows against its US counterpart following grim data A stream of weak Australian dollar underpinned hopes of early RBA interest rate cuts this year, in turn harming the Aussies standing. The Price The AUD/USD pair fell 0.3% today to 0.6591, with...
Copyright 2023-2025 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved