financetom
News
financetom
/
News
/
US dollar fluctuates as hostilities between the United States and Iran intensify
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
US dollar fluctuates as hostilities between the United States and Iran intensify
Jul 13, 2026 4:40 AM

The US dollar traded in volatile fashion on Monday after surrendering its early gains, as investors focused on renewed military clashes in the Gulf region. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen weakened following a report indicating that Japan has no immediate plans to alter the asset allocation of its government pension funds.

The dollar initially strengthened alongside higher oil prices before losing momentum later in the session. The euro rose 0.15% to $1.1433, sterling was little changed at $1.339, while the Australian dollar slipped 0.1% to $0.694.

Renewed Gulf tensions lift oil prices

The weekend saw an intense exchange of missile and drone attacks between the United States and Iran. Tehran targeted US facilities in several Gulf countries on Sunday and once again announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important oil shipping routes.

The developments pushed oil prices higher, with Brent crude rising about 3% to $78.50 a barrel.

In currency markets, the US dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, climbed as much as 0.3% during the session before reversing course to trade down 0.2% at 100.83.

"The dollar was the biggest beneficiary of the previous conflict, but this time it is starting from a much stronger level, and markets have already repriced their expectations for Federal Reserve policy," said Thomas Mathews, Head of Markets for Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics.

"So it is not clear that the dollar will enjoy the same gains if the situation continues to deteriorate, and that already appears to be reflected in today's price action," he added.

Markets increase bets on US rate hikes

Federal funds futures showed that markets are pricing roughly a 50% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates two or more times by its December meeting, up slightly from Friday, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

This week's focus will be on:

US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due on Tuesday.

US Producer Price Index (PPI) data scheduled for Wednesday.

Testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh before both the House of Representatives and the Senate, which could provide fresh signals on the future direction of monetary policy.

Yen weakens again

The Japanese yen declined against the US dollar after a report indicated that the Japanese government has no immediate plans to revise the asset allocation of government pension funds.

The dollar rose 0.2% to 162.05, reviving concerns that Japanese authorities could intervene in the foreign exchange market as the yen continues to trade near its weakest level in almost 40 years.

The yen and Japanese government bonds had rallied on Friday after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the government would explore ways to encourage pension funds, including the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), to increase investments in domestic financial assets.

However, two government sources told Reuters that the administration is only seeking to encourage investment within the current asset allocation framework, with no immediate plans to revise the fund's medium-term allocation targets.

Chris Turner, Global Head of Markets at ING, said the possibility of Japanese intervention in the currency market remains on the table this week, but noted that "intervention alone cannot reverse the dollar's current upward trend."

He added that reversing the trend would require lower energy prices as well as greater confidence that the Federal Reserve no longer needs to continue raising interest rates.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
Japanese yen expands gains to four-week high in a strong start
Japanese yen expands gains to four-week high in a strong start
May 26, 2025
The Japanese yen rose in Asian trade on Monday against a basket of major rivals, expanding gains for the second straight session against the dollar and hitting a four-week high on haven demand amid concerns about US debt levels following Trumps tax reform bill. The gains are boosted as well by increasing inflationary pressures on Bank of Japans policymakers, which...
Euro hits four-week high before Lagarde's remarks
Euro hits four-week high before Lagarde's remarks
May 26, 2025
The euro rose in European trade on Monday against a basket of major rivals, extending gains for the second straight session against the dollar and hitting a four-week high as US President Donald Trump gave the EU another chance to reach a trade deal. Recent eurozone inflation data led to divisions between European Central Bank policymakers on the decision to...
Yen rushes to four-week high on strong demand
Yen rushes to four-week high on strong demand
May 27, 2025
The Japanese yen rose in Asian trade on Tuesday against a basket of major rivals, resuming gains against the dollar after a short hiatus and hitting a four-week high on strong haven demand amid concerns about US debt levels. Gains are also bolstered by the increasing odds of a Japanese interest rate hike in June in response to mounting inflationary...
US dollar extends losses to five-week trough on US debt concerns
US dollar extends losses to five-week trough on US debt concerns
May 26, 2025
The US dollar fell in European trade on Monday against a basket of major rivals, hitting a five-week trough amid concerns about the US debt levels. Now investors await important remarks by several Fed officials as they look for more clues on the odds of multiple Fed rate cuts this year. The Index The dollar index fell 0.4% to 98.69,...
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved