While U.S. President Donald Trump says the war in Iran could end "very soon," and as Pakistani mediators in Tehran prepare to meet with officials, another nearby conflict has begun to attract Beijing's attention.

Since late February, fighting between Afghanistan and Pakistan has escalated, with Islamabad declaring an "open war" with its neighbor. The strikes have resulted in the deaths of hundreds of people and the displacement of hundreds of thousands, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in Afghanistan. This conflict has alarmed the international community and disturbed China, which is a partner to both countries and sensitive to violence on its western border.

In this context, Beijing intervened to play a diplomatic role, announcing on April 8 that it hosted talks lasting a week in the city of Urumqi in western China, in an attempt to reach a ceasefire. The stakes involve not only cooling hostilities but also an broader test of China's ability to manage unrest in its surroundings, where it holds deep economic and political ties.

Although all parties announced their support for dialogue, deep-seated differences regarding armed groups and cross-border attacks threaten to derail any real de-escalation. Delegations from the three parties were quick to praise the talks; the Chinese Foreign Ministry described them as "frank and practical," while the Taliban considered them "useful" and stated they took place in a "constructive atmosphere."

However, even as the talks were being held, Afghanistan accused Pakistan of carrying out cross-border shelling, raising questions about China's ability to end the conflict and its willingness to employ its diplomatic weight, especially as it also deals with the war in Iran.

Michael Semple, an expert on Afghan affairs at Queen's University Belfast, said: "Taliban and Pakistani diplomats know how to craft phrases that show China in a good light, and even take limited measures to ease border tensions." He added: "But reaching an agreement regarding Taliban support for the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) will remain difficult for the time being."

Pakistan has long accused the Taliban-led Afghanistan of harboring TTP fighters, a militant group that carries out cross-border attacksaccusations the Afghan Taliban deny.

Testing Beijings influence

Analysts believe that both Pakistan and the Taliban view China as a strategic partner.

For Islamabad, Beijing represents a counterweight to its traditional rival, India, as well as being a vital source of foreign investment. For the Taliban, China represents a massive nearby market that could support its struggling economy, in addition to being a partner that could help the government gain full international recognition after the movement's takeover of power in 2021.

But despite China's theoretical influence, it remains unclear to what extent it is willing to exert pressure.

Beijing usually takes a limited role in international mediation, focusing its efforts on cases likely to achieve quick results, such as the 2023 agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia that restored diplomatic relations between the two Middle Eastern rivals.

Amid the war in Iran, China has also largely maintained a public distance, sufficing with receiving foreign delegations and seeking to present itself as an arbiter of international rules. This stands in contrast to the United States, as shown when Chinese President Xi Jinping described the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports as a "return to the law of the jungle" during his reception of Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, on April 14.

Nevertheless, some reports, including statements from Trump himself, indicate that China may have used its position as the largest investor in Iran and a major buyer of its oil to push it toward engaging in ceasefire talks with the United States, and potentially ending the fighting.

A complex conflict between Kabul and Islamabad

Containing the tension between Islamabad and Kabul will not be easy.

Even before the Taliban's return to power in August 2021, the previous Afghan government accused Pakistan of supporting the Taliban on its territory, which Islamabad denied at the time.

Since the end of the Urumqi talks, few official statements regarding their results have been issued. Pakistan is also playing an active diplomatic role by hosting ceasefire talks between the United States and Iran.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said: "The three parties agreed to explore a comprehensive solution to issues in Afghanistan-Pakistan relations and identified the core priority issues that must be addressed."

For his part, Omar Samad, a former Afghan diplomat based in the United States, said the China-backed talks created new momentum, but the gap remains wide between the rhetoric and the reality on the ground.

He added: "The talks opened a narrow window, but such windows tend to close quickly when faced with deep-rooted mistrust," noting that China and other mediators need a long-term commitment to address structural issues that are "complex but not insurmountable."

From allies to adversaries

While it was expected that the Taliban government would maintain Pakistan's support after its return to power, relations between the two parties have seen a deterioration, especially due to the TTP file.

Tensions reached a peak in October 2025 during an official week-long visit by Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi to India.

On October 9, the first day of the visit, Pakistan launched airstrikes on several Afghan provinces, including the capital, Kabul. Initial reports indicated the attack targeted TTP leader Noor Wali Mehsud, who later posted a video to prove he was still alive.

Following the strikes, Taliban forces launched counter-attacks along the border and said they killed dozens of Pakistani security personnel, which Islamabad denied.

Defense ministers from both sides later traveled to Doha on October 18 for talks mediated by Turkey, which resulted in a temporary ceasefire. Follow-up meetings were also held in Istanbul, followed by additional mediation efforts from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, but they failed to achieve a permanent truce.

With the renewal of escalation in February, a major Pakistani strike on March 16 targeted the "Omid" drug rehabilitation center at the former NATO base "Camp Phoenix" east of Kabul.

The Taliban said more than 400 people were killed, while Islamabad maintained it targeted military facilities. The UN later reported 143 fatalities, while Human Rights Watch condemned the attack, considering it an "unlawful attack and potentially a war crime."

Semple said: "It seems the Taliban are ideologically committed to continuing the jihad, and therefore unable to distance themselves from the TTP." He added: "As long as the movement's campaign continues, there is every reason to expect an escalation of the conflict between the Taliban and Pakistan."