The Japanese yen fell in Asian trading on Monday against a basket of major and minor currencies, continuing its losses for the third consecutive day against the U.S. dollar, amid renewed buying operations of the American currency as the best alternative investment, especially after the collapse of peace talks between the United States and Iran in Pakistan.
With the escalation of U.S. threats to impose a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian ports, global oil prices jumped by more than 10%, in a development that brings concerns of accelerating global inflation back to the forefront and increases pressure on central banks to take steps closer toward raising interest rates in the near term.
Price overview
- Japanese yen exchange rate today: The dollar rose against the yen by nearly 0.4% to (159.85), from Friday's closing price at (159.24), and recorded a low during today's trading at (159.50).
- The yen ended Friday's trading down by 0.2% against the dollar, in its second consecutive daily loss.
- Last week, the yen achieved an increase of 0.2% against the dollar, its second consecutive weekly gain, thanks to the agreement between the United States and Iran on a two-week ceasefire, which included opening the Strait of Hormuz to global navigation.
The U.S. Dollar
The dollar index rose on Monday at the start of the week's trading by 0.5%, beginning a broad recovery from its lowest levels in a month, reflecting the rise in the levels of the American currency against a basket of global currencies.
Aside from buying operations from low levels, U.S. dollar levels rose due to fears of renewed war in the Middle East region after the collapse of peace talks between the United States and Iran in Pakistan.
Saul Kavonic, an analyst at MST Marquee, said: The market has now largely returned to its status before the ceasefire.
Updates on the Iranian war
- The talks between the United States and Iran in Islamabad ended in a deadlock.
- Washington's insistence on a complete dismantling of what remains of uranium enrichment facilities in Iran.
- Tehran's demand for an immediate lifting of all economic sanctions before extending the truce.
- Trump says that the United States will impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz after the failure of peace talks with Iran.
- Trump ordered the U.S. Navy to impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz starting at 10:00 AM U.S. Eastern Time on Monday.
- Trump believes that Iran will continue the dialogue; Tehran seeks a "balanced and fair agreement."
- Iran warns of a harsh response to the blockade and accuses the United States of being intransigent in negotiations.
- The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump and his advisors are considering launching limited strikes on Iran.
Global oil prices
Oil prices jumped by more than 10% on Monday, after the failure of U.S.-Iranian talks to reach an agreement, leaving the fragile ceasefire hanging and continuing to choke energy exports from the Middle East.
Undoubtedly, the rise in global oil prices renews fears of accelerating inflation, which may push global central banks to raise interest rates in the near term, in a sharp shift from pre-war expectations of cutting or fixing interest rates for a long period.
Japanese interest rates
- The pricing of the probabilities of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in the April meeting is currently stable around 10%.
- In order to re-price those probabilities, investors await the release of more data on the levels of inflation, unemployment, and wages in Japan.