In Assam, the ruling BJP is facing a challenge from 'Mahajoth' or 'Grand Alliance' comprising the Congress, AIUDF, Bodoland Peoples' Front (BPF), CPI(M), CPI, CPI(ML) Liberation, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Anchalik Gana Morcha (AGM).
The BJP has an alliance with the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), the United People's Party Liberal (UPPL) and the Gana Suraksha Party (GSP),
The saffron party had scripted history by winning the traditionally Congress-dominated state in 2016, after remaining on the fringes.
Here’s a Strength, Weakness, Opportunity and Threat (SWOT) analysis of BJP and Congress-led alliances in Assam assembly elections 2021:
BJP Alliance
Strength: Tested leadership of CM Sarbananda Sonowal and senior leader Himanta Biswa Sarma, Organisation structure and RSS support, Hindutva and cultural polarisation in favour, Strong alliance partners like UPPL, AGP, Centre's social welfare schemes
Weakness: Hagrama Mohilary-led Bodoland People’s Front contesting with Congress-led ‘mahajot’ grand alliance, Badradduding Ajmal's sway over Muslim voters, BJP's conflicting stand over CAA and NRC
Opportunity: Exit polls predict BJP edge, Congress-AIUDF alliance may lead to Hindu polarisation, 2019 election win momentum, PM Modi's popularity, social welfare schemes, infrastructure investment
Threat: Muslim consolidation, BJP controversy over CAA and NRC, anti-incumbency, Factionalism within the party and regional parties, Contradiction over Hindutva and Assamese cultural identities, AJP and Raijor Dal could hurt BJP alliance, Exit polls predict tight contest
Congress Alliance
Strength: Clear stand on CAA, Assamese identity and assimilation plank, Large presence of Muslim voters in pockets, Strong alliance with AIUDF and BPF
Weakness: Absence of a leader like Tarun Gogoi, a lacklustre campaign by Congress leadership, Weak organisation, AIDUF's presence in the alliance may lead to reverse polarisation of Hindus
Opportunity: BJP's ambivalent stand on CAA and NRC, anti-incumbency, coronavirus,
Threat: Tested BJP CM leadership, Relative pro-incumbency, AIUDF, BJP edge in exit polls
(Edited by : Ajay Vaishnav)