The most interesting part of elections in India is that when we get into its niceties every single poll turns into a thrilling adventure. And this time around, out of the four states (and a union territory) going to the polls, Assam is set to be most confounding. This is because the politics of Assam is most complex to comprehend, thanks to its ethnic, linguistic and religious intricacies. As a result, while poll pundits are making diametrically different predictions on the probable outcome, the political alliances—confident of their victory—are leaving no stone unturned in exploring all avenues.

In Assam, the assembly elections are being held in three phases, but curiously enough, the first phase will prove most crucial in determining the fate of the BJP and Congress alliances. Out of a total of 126 assembly seats, 47 are up for grabs in the first phase on March 27. This is over one-third of the entire seats covering 12 of the total 34 districts in Assam, 11 of which comprise the most significant Upper and North Assam regions.

Notably, the complete construction of the poll campaigning that we have witnessed in the run-up to the elections was conceived, by both the ruling BJP and the Congress, to woo the section of voters who dominate the Upper and North regions of Assam: whether it's an anti-CAA pitch raised by the Congress or a pro-NRC stance reinforced by the BJP. To understand the complete divergent stands of two major political players in Assam, and how they expect the issues to play out in the polls, one needs to take a closer look at the demography of the state.

According to the 2011 census, Hindus (61.47 percent) and Muslims (34.22 percent) together constitute 95.69 percent of Assam's population. The remaining religious groups include Christians (3.74 percent), Sikhs (0.07 percent), Buddhists 0.18 percent, Jains (0.08 percent) and others (0.09 percent).

In any other parts of India, it may be broadly assumed that the Hindus will support the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) while the Muslims will oppose it. But that does not necessarily hold for Assam, where Hindus are divided over the issue, with the native Assamese rejecting the CAA and the Bengali speaking Hindus rooting for it.

Essentially, the native Assamese want all 'illegal immigrants' including Hindus, who entered Assam after March 24, 1971, to be thrown off the state. But the CAA offers non-Muslim illegal immigrants a window to acquire Indian citizenship. The indigenous Assamese call it a breach of Clause 5 of the Assam Accord 1985, which promised to protect their cultural, social and linguistic identity.

With ethnicity and language taking precedence over religion in Assam, the Congress party considers it an opportunity to reap the benefits, hoping that it will get the votes of both Muslims and indigenous Assamese raking up the issue of CAA. To ensure the votes of Muslims, the Congress stitched an alliance with the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) led by Maulana Badruddin Ajmal.

But the BJP has devised a different strategy to counter the offensive of the Congress, going back to the issue of the National Register of Citizens (NRC) which helped the party rise to power in Assam in 2016. In its manifesto released on Tuesday, the BJP avoided any mention of CAA and promised a 'corrected NRC' if voted to power again.

Principally, the Sarbananda Sonowal-led BJP government has been consistent in its stand that the current form of NRC, published on August 31, 2019, is unacceptable to it due to its 'erroneous exclusions and inclusions'. The final NRC list excluded 19 lakh people who are facing 'expulsion' from Assam, but the saffron party is of the view that the current list ‘wrongfully’ includes genuine Hindu citizens and illegal Muslim immigrants.

The BJP believes that a commitment of 'corrected NRC' will secure its vote bank, holding Assamese and Bengali-speaking Hindus together. As the census doesn't permit religious segregation based on languages, the exact number of Assamese and Bengali speaking Hindus are not known, but according to the 2011 census, 46.81 percent of the state’s population speaks Assamese and 28.15 percent of it speaks Bengali. Though it should be noted that the Muslims in large number speak Bengali with a good chunk of them are Assamese speaking also.

Even though Assam has the highest percentage of Muslims among the Indian states, what makes the polling in the first phase intriguing is that the seven districts of Upper Assam have a majority of Hindu population with just 2-18 percent Muslims in number, while in the remaining five districts in the North and Central Assam regions, Hindus have 35-74 percent population.

In the 2016 assembly elections, the BJP-AGP alliance dominated the Upper, North and Central Assam, winning 35 out of 47 seats while the Congress and the AIUDF bagged 9 and 2 seats respectively. Later, in the 2019 parliamentary elections also, the NDA alliance held sway in these regions.

Now the Congress intends to turn the table on the BJP dividing its electorates, but the saffron party claims it will return to power and the Badruddin Ajmal factor will further consolidate its Hindu votes.

Besides CAA and NRC, the 'tea tribes' factor is expected to play a critical role in the first phase of elections in Assam. Upper Assam is one of the largest tea-growing regions in the world. The tea tribes, around 65 lakh in number out of which around 10 lakh work in tea gardens, have long been demanding better wages and the scheduled tribe status.

Ahead of the elections, both the BJP and the Congress have been trying hard to earn their votes with tall promises. While Rahul Gandhi assured to increase their daily wage to Rs 365 within six hours of the Congress winning the elections, State Finance Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma went on to threaten the tea garden owners to immediately raise their wage by Rs 50. A day after, the Indian Tea Association (ITA) enhanced it by Rs 26 with effect from February 22.

In the 2016 assembly polls, with the 'Jaati, Maati and Bheti' slogan, the BJP succeeded in ending the 15-year-rule of the Tarun Gogoi government. This time the Sarbananda Sonowal government is showcasing its development work and the PM’s welfare programmes to win the hearts of people, while the opposition Congress is promising five lakh jobs and free electricity. Now it is the turn of the people to exercise their franchise and seal the fate of the political parties.

—Om Tiwari is a Delhi-based journalist and columnist. The views expressed are personal

(Edited by : Ajay Vaishnav)