Today, denizens of Karnataka will speak through the voting machine, pressing the button in favour of candidates of a party they prefer to govern the state over the next five years.

The status of the voter remains exalted till the ballot is cast. Perhaps no one captured the image better than a famous political lampoonist from the state in which politicians greet with folded hands the ‘voter’ strutting inside the polling booth.

Also Read: Campaign ends, Karnataka set for mega vote battle on May 10

Who will the voters elect?

The question is uppermost in the minds of people, not just in Karnataka but elsewhere in the country. Principal contending parties, the Bharatiya Janata Party, Indian National Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular) are exuding confidence of being the preferred choice of the electorate.

Over the past few weeks, a number of pre-poll surveys made projections granting a simple majority to both the BJP and the Congress, with regional JD (S) emerging as the third party with a presence in the new assembly. Of the others in the fray, the likes of the Aam Aadmi Party, the AIMIM have the potential to upset the calculations of the major contenders.

Also Read: BJP Vs Congress | Who has the upper hand in Karnataka election 2023

By Wednesday night, the country can count to add another chapter in this saga of predictions, in the form of Exit Polls, a ritual conducted with elan by different news television channels.

Past experience makes people accept the unveiling of such predictions with a fair amount of scepticism till the votes are counted. In Karnataka it will be on Saturday, May 13.

In the west, especially the United States where the two major parties’ voters are clearly identified makes psephology far more accurate barring rare cases of swing voters or those in the middle, spoil calculations. In India, the matrix is far more complicated even though pollsters remain at it with gusto, sometimes getting it right.

Be that as it may, the stakes are high for the BJP, which has been governing the state for the past four years and attempting to push the idea that it is only by re-electing ‘Double Engine” Government , the state can prosper and grow. For the BJP, as is known, the state remains a gateway to its grand plan to spread in the South.

Also Read: A Modi-vated BJP, cautious Congress and hopeful JD(S) wait for voting day

Looking at the high-octane multi-mode campaign it is clear that the BJP’s worked on a two-pronged strategy, working to retain power in the state and preparing the ground for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. After having raised issues against preferences of those belonging to minorities during the past couple of years, the party avoided direct reference except seeking to paint the Congress in that corner.

The party central leadership chose to attack the policies and programmes of the Congress, dubbing its election promises as financially unviable and doomed to fail from the start. The thrust of the attack was also to project the party as one pursuing promotion of a single family, read the Gandhis. To overcome the burden of anti-incumbency, the BJP depends hugely on the Modi magic and the Prime Minister’s popularity.

Also Read: Bajrang Dal, Kerala Story, personal attacks — How Karnataka Congress is getting lured away from its core issues

Having been in the government, the BJP carries a baggage with issues like corruption, unemployment and price rise being levelled by the Congress-led opposition. The Congress strategy was to make the government of the day accountable and made rapier thrusts throughout on issues of governance or the lack of it under Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai.

Aware that its strength lay in strong local leadership and state elections are fought on issues that prevail locally, the Congress remained firm in raising matters that resonate among people.

Yet, elections in India, especially in states, are not decided solely on issues of governance and tall promises made during the campaign. The calculations include the most determining factor of caste followed by influence of local leadership, strong support base from dominant communities and the extent of reach among other backward classes besides the minorities. The presence of rebels and those leaders who migrated to other parties add an unknown dimension. Party and/or its candidates who get the combination right can reasonably aspire to be first-past-the post.

The BJP over the last decade has demonstrated it has one of the best election machinery in the country, a solid workforce aided by countless RSS workers and above all has a rich war-chest. The downside is that a number of its leaders crossed over to the other side just before the elections and is also bedevilled by some two score rebels.

Also read: 'BJP's Yediyurappa takes coaching role, Modi's personality could influence results'

On the other hand, the Congress and its leadership appear confident that its campaign forced the BJP to go on the backfoot and several surveys add weight to this theory that for the BJP, its time is up.

Yet, among several fault lines, one is most pronounced, the running feud between former Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and State Congress Chief DK Sivakumar that threatens fragile intra-party peace.

Several accounts do indicate a close contest on the cards even as major parties expect the people to pronounce a clear and decisive mandate. Over to the voter who has to choose the future looking at the past and above all with hope.

—The author, KV Prasad, is a senior journalist and has earlier worked with The Hindu and The Tribune. Views expressed are personal.

Read his previous articles here

(Edited by : C H Unnikrishnan)

First Published:May 10, 2023 1:21 AM IST