The recent rebellion within the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), along with other factors such as "huge anti-incumbency", corruption charges and caste politics, pose a grim challenge to the saffron party in Karnataka. Political analysts believe that this can impact the BJP's vote share in the upcoming polls as it is all about "perception" in this poll-bound state.

Now, the perception about the BJP being the "custodian of Lingayats" has been hampered with two key leaders — former Karnataka Chief Minister Jagadish Shettar and former Deputy Chief Minister Laxman Savadi — quitting the BJP after being denied a poll ticket. They have now joined the Congress, raising doubts if the Lingayat votes will be divided between the two parties.

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The Congress has taken the lead in creating the perception that BJP is an "anti-Lingayat party" after the exit of Shettar and Savadi. It has changed the perception that the BJP is the sole custodian of the Lingayats in Karnataka.

Now, experts believe that if the Congress manages to get these tactics translated into votes, it will help the party immensely. If the grand-old party manages to take over even 25 percent to 30 percent of Lingayat votes, "then it is over the BJP". The Congress won't be able to gain all Lingayat votes, but even these 25-30 percent may help the Congress win the polls. The BJP can collapse if a significant section of Lingayat community shifts their allegiance towards Congress.

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BJP's strategy for Karnataka polls backfiring?

Shettar had claimed earlier that he was asked by the BJP top brass to make way for youngsters. Even Karnataka Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai defended the BJP and stated that tickets are being denied to some candidates to provide opportunities to the young generation.

Juggi Bhasin, a political analyst and commentator, said the BJP might want to field a "younger and energetic lot to make a connection with the electorate". With these arguments, experts emphasised the importance of the connection of party leaders with people from the grassroots level. "It is a gamble they have ventured into," Bhasin told CNBCTV18.com.

Now, some experts say that this model was successful in some states including Gujarat and Goa, but it won't work in Karnataka as the state votes mainly on the basis of caste and sub-castes (ST, SC, OBCs). "Hindutva vote is a very marginal vote in Karnataka. The BJP is mainly a caste-based party in Karnataka, maybe a Lingayat party," a senior journalist aware of developments in Karnataka said.

He said that caste and sub-caste are the key to the Karnataka polls and therefore, the BJP has not applied this in entire Karnataka. This model would have been implemented in coastal, Dakshin Karnataka where the BJP has Hindutva votes. But in the rest of Karnataka, the party knows that caste and sub-castes are important. Without them, they cannot win the elections.

Meanwhile, KV Prasad, a senior journalist, told CNBCTV18.com, that the BJP's model might be aimed at "removing the anger of the people against" the government and legislatures. He said that people might favour the BJP as the party but not the candidate. Hence, in that case, changing the candidate becomes important.

"BJP is also...looking to make a generation change," he said. According to him, this addresses two things — it gives the new generation a chance and also helps the party eliminate anger associated with local leaders. Here, it is worth noting that Congress is projecting the BJP as a "corrupt party", which might impact votes." Azaz Alam, another political analyst, also said, "The BJP's strategy went wrong."

Is BJP a sinking ship?

Shifting parties is natural in a state where assembly elections are around the corner. But in this case, the BJP is facing more challenges such as anti-incumbency and allegations of corruption — factors around which the Congress's whole poll campaign is built.

The Congress has cited an allegation by the Karnataka Contractors Association which stated that the demand for bribes in the state had risen from 10 percent to 40 percent under the BJP government. According to an Indian Express report, the association had made the allegation in a letter to Prime Minister Narendra Modi in July 2021.

"The BJP is on the backfoot because of the perceived unpopularity of the CM and the BJP government. It is a sinking ship that people are leaving the party. Meanwhile, the Congress has its own share of problems (leadership issues). And therefore, the party wants... Siddaramaiah and other key leaders such as DK Shivakumar to keep hold of the horses and make strategies aimed at maximising the seats as much as possible," KV Prasad said.

Both the BJP and the Congress have their ups and downs, negatives and positives. But the shifting of key Lingayat leaders from BJP to Congress has sounded another alarm with analysts expecting a tight contest between both parties. The speculation will be ended only after the results of the elections to the 224-member assembly state are declared on May 13. The state will go to polls on May 10.

(Edited by : Pradeep John)