Bargain and politics go hand in hand. Amid the race to the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the Congress is seeking a major bargain — it is demanding "Opposition unity." But how is it a bargain? CNBCTV18.com explains here.

The speculation over the formulation of a "third front" ahead of Lok Sabha polls has yet again been doing rounds with the row over the new Parliament building's inauguration and the Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal's outreach programme to seek support against the Centre's ordinance on "service."

The Congress, which is the second-largest national party in the country, has joined 18 other Opposition parties to boycott the Parliament inauguration event. It, however, remains undecided over supporting Kejriwal, the chief of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) which is the Congress' rival in Punjab.

Like Punjab, the Congress has its rivals in several other states such as Kerala, Bengal, Telangana and Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Delhi. And hence, a third front "with 100 percent opposition unity is not possible," as per a political expert.

"There are almost 250 seats where it (100 percent Opposition unity) is not possible... There are around 130 seats where Opposition unity is not required — in Tamil Nadu, Bihar, Maharashtra and Jharkhand — as the Opposition is already united there... Then there are constituencies (190) where there's a direct BJP-Congress contest (there's no third party)," Amitabh Tiwari, a political strategist and commentator explained while speaking with CNBCTV18.com.

#OppositionUnity is overhyped:UP - not possibleKerala - not possibleTamil Nadu - already unitedTelangana - not possibleAndhra - not possibleOdisha - not possibleBengal - not possiblePunjab - not possibleMP - not requiredRaj - not requiredCG - not required…

— Amitabh Tiwari (@politicalbaaba) May 19, 2023

The previous general elections were fought between the National Democratic Alliance (BJP and allies), the United Progressive Alliance (Congress an allies) and a third or sometimes even a fourth front which did not support any of the two national parties. Is 100 percent Opposition unity possible this time?

What hinders Opposition unity

In an interview with News 18 earlier, political strategist-cum-politician Prashant Kishor had said the Opposition is not weak in India but Opposition parties are. "The role of the Opposition and parties is to bring the other six together to pose a challenge (to the BJP). However, the Opposition has not been successful in doing so," he said. Read Prashant Kishore's interview here

While Kishore said there was an ideological problem that hinders "Opposition unity," Amitabh Tiwari believed that "trust deficit" is the root cause of this.

There's only one party which cannot form an alliance with the BJP — the Congress. "But, from the TMC to TRS, YSRCP, BJD, JMM, Akali Dal, JD(U), RLD, J&K National Congress, to PDP, most of the parties have been part of the NDA earlier," Tiwari said. He even pointed to the Congress' internal factionalism as another issue.

(Credit: Election Commission of India)

'The Congress does not gain anything by ...'

Denied alliance with many regional parties in the past, the Congress may be aware by now that not all Opposition parties or regional parties (such as BSP, CPIM, AAP) are in favour of joining forces with it. So what is the "Opposition unity" that the Congress is talking about?

"The Congress is talking about the Opposition in which regional parties accept the dominance of the Congress," Tiwari said. "It's a game of bargaining... the Opposition is already united to the extent required."

He explained that while Congress will be able to transfer vote share to these groups of parties, "that will not be reciprocated as these parties don't have vote share.” Here, he was referring to regional parties which are losing their ground in respective states — such as the BSP in Uttar Pradesh and JD(S) in Karnataka.

"The Congress does not gain anything by forging any alliances with the regional party outside their vote share." In case, the party teams up with the Trinamool Congress (TMC), it will get support in West Bengal only," he added.

Moreover, it's either the UPA or a regional party (not both) that's the "principal opponent" for the BJP in most of the states.

Like-minded secular forces

Experts maintain that in some states, a significant number of Congress' vote share has been taken by regional parties. "Regional parties have also weakened the Congress... there's a thought process in it on whether it can get back the votes it has lost to regional parties." For example, over 80 percent of AAP voters in Punjab used to vote for Congress earlier.

And hence, after a brainstorming conclave in Chhattisgarh's Raipur, the Congress said that the party "should go all out to identify, mobilise and align like-minded secular forces."

"We should include secular regional forces who agree with our ideology. There is an urgent need for a united Opposition to take on the NDA on common ideological grounds. The emergence of any third force will provide an advantage to the BJP/NDA," the party had said in February this year.

Therefore, if 17-18 parties are with the UPA, so it'll be a direct contest between the UPA and the NDA.

'Transfer of votes never happen'

The main assumption over the "Opposition unity" is that there will be a seamless transfer of votes. But, according to political analysts, "that never happens." They said there will always be "leakages" — meaning the pre-poll vote share is higher than the post-polls vote share. "In alliance, it should be equal and more but that never happens," Tiwari said.

Earlier, Prashant Kishor had said the coming together of all the Opposition leaders won't mean that the entire 60 percent of votes would be galvanised. He told News 18 that the NDA as a whole bagged around 38 percent votes in the 2019 election, but this means, 62 percent voted against the BJP.

Citing the reason why the 62 percent bank is fragmented, Kishore said this is because it is not divided on the basis of parties or leaders, but on the basis of ideology. He emphasised the importance of the "coming together of ideologies and ideas" to build a "counter-narrative."

The 2024 Lok Sabha elections will be closely watched, especially after the Congress win in the Karnataka polls — which was dubbed as the semi-final for the general elections. The elections in five states — Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram, Telangana and Madhya Pradesh — are due this year. Two of these three states are ruled by the Congress as of now.

(Edited by : Shoma Bhattacharjee)

First Published:May 26, 2023 6:54 AM IST