With the country set to enter the home stretch for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, political parties opposed to the governing Bharatiya Janata Party are exploring new alignments and challenging the existing arrangement.

In this direction, the latest initiative undertaken by two regional parties, Samajwadi Party led by Akhilesh Yadav and Trinamool Congress headed by West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is yet another attempt to work for an alternative.

At the outset, the two leaders came out with a common understanding, one that these parties will work together against the BJP and that the alternative will be a coalition which will not align with the Congress.

Also Read: Mamata, Akhilesh to Stand Together in 2024 | Rahul’s Idea of ‘Larger Opposition Unity’ Under Cong a Mirage?

On the face of it, the plan in principle appears to be anti-Congress, anti-BJP principle but the subscript is tilted more towards age-old anti-Congressism, a predominant theme of national politics. The tendency is still lurking around even though the Grand Old Party is a pale shadow of the organisation that helmed a coalition government at the Centre less than a decade ago.

Ironically, both the Samajwadi Party and the Trinamool Congress have had electoral partnership with the Indian National Congress while the Trinamool holds the unique distinction of being part of the governing arrangement at the Centre both under Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee-led National Democratic Alliance and the Manmohan Singh-led United Progressive Alliance.

Also Read: AAP starts 2024 war with 'Modi hatao, desh bachao' posters and rally at Jantar Mantar

It is clear that neither the SP, a strong regional party in Uttar Pradesh nor the TMC, with a formidable hold in West Bengal, can claim to have a decisive political influence outside of these two states. At best it can be disruptive.

Mamata Banerjee has set out on the task of carving out a platform where parties who share the outlook similar to the TMC and SP can pool resources and work out a new political arrangement. The line-up that can be accumulated stretches to both southern and northern parts of the country.

For the present, the SP-TMC can spot possible partners in the Aam Aadmi Party which has governments in Delhi and Punjab and the Yuvjana Sramika Ryuthu (YSR) Congress of Jagan Mohan Reddy. Mamata Banerjee plans to start an outreach programme by meeting the Biju Janata Dal and Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik.

This is not the first time that Mamata Banerjee embarked upon such a mission. Around this time in 2018, the TMC Chief tied up with the Telugu Desam Party and then Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu. Together the two parties went about whipping up foam that dissipated by the time elections were held, with Naidu failing to retain power in home state.

During the past decade, the political landscape in the country underwent a massive change and today’s no political party in the opposition be it the Congress or others have the strength to effectively challenge the BJP and on its own steam dislodge the Narendra Modi government.

The irony is the SP, TMC, AAP and YSR Congress can at best hope to retain the party bases and garner seats in the respective states they are strong. Yet the effort would not translate into a substantial strength that can determine the formation of any viable coalition at the Centre.

Also Read: Bharat Jodo Yatra — Will the concluding part set the stage for a 2024 coalition?

Factors that prevent an understanding of these parties with the Congress include competing for the same political space, ambitions of its leaders besides the overhang of investigating agencies. This when the Congress, even at its shrunken state remains a pan-Indian party and a pole around which parties opposed to the BJP could rally.

For instance, the TMC cannot agree to work out an arrangement with the Congress when the latter is comfortable with the Left parties in West Bengal. The irony is that the Congress and the Left are staunch political rivals in Kerala but buried differences to rub shoulders in recent Tripura assembly polls. SP is finding its feet in UP and fancies the party can re-establish itself as a major force in the next Lok Sabha elections. The AAP and YSR Congress, are parties that rose challenging the Congress and occupied space vacated in Delhi/Punjab and Andhra Pradesh respectively.

The larger objective for all these parties is to ensure that the BJP does not grow, which is similar to the challenge Bharat Rashtra Samiti (former Telangana Rashtra Samiti) faces. It is another matter that its founder and Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrasekhara Rao is creating an image of a leader who is preparing to challenge PM Modi.

Now among all these parties the one that stands out is the BJD. The party has held on to its position in the state for two decades and emerged as the voice of the people of Odisha in Parliament. Barring a brief association with the BJP during Prime Minister Vajpayee’s tenure, the BJD ploughs the ground on its own reaping rich electoral harvest.

With inherent contradictions and inability to rise above differences, talk of opposition unity is a theoretical construct just the recurring grand plan of a third front, a chimaera. Meanwhile, the Congress game plan is to put its head down, consolidate its position in upcoming assembly polls of Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram and Madhya Pradesh and prepare to negotiate from a position of strength.

—The author,KV Prasad, is a senior journalist and has earlier worked with The Hindu and The Tribune. Views expressed are personal.

Read his previous articles here

(Edited by : C H Unnikrishnan)