Voting in Tripura is scheduled for February 16 and counting will take place on March 2. The BJP and the Indigenous Peoples Front of Tripura (IPFT) government will be hoping to recreate their success. At the same time, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) would want to regain its former bastion with the help of Congress this time.

Bharatiya Janata Party

Strength – The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently holds 36 out of the 60 seats in the Tripura assembly. The party has been able to solidify support among the Bengali populace in the northeastern state. The party has also significantly improved the law and order situation in the state, which has brought it more supporters. The IPFT won 8 seats in the last elections and will hope to play a bigger role in the alliance with the BJP.

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Weakness – Anti-incumbent sentiment and growing resentment among the Muslim and tribal electorate may impact the BJP. This time, the IPFT will only be contesting in 5 seats as many members left the party to join TIPRA Motha.

Threats – The biggest threat to the BJP rule in the state is the rapidly growing movement behind TIPRA Motha. Led by Tripura royal scion Pradyot Kishore Manikya Debbarma, the party has asked for written assurances for the creation of Greater Tipraland – a separate state for the Tipra people. The TIPRA Motha has galvanised the tribal electorate across the state and may take critical votes and seats away from the BJP.

Opportunities – With Trinamool Congress also entering the fray this election, the BJP may have a chance to see its opposition squabble among the same voter base allowing it to secure a good margin.

Left Front

Strength – The Left Front, led by the CPI(M), has entered into an alliance with Congress for the coming election. The two parties were the second and third biggest parties in the previous election. Coming together for a united front against the ruling government may help them connect with the voter base amid anti-incumbency.

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Weakness – Congress and the Left Front have been staunch rivals for over two decades in the state and many Congress supporters are unlikely to forget the violence they had faced under the Left Front government in the past. This might work in BJP and TIPRA’s favour as many Congress supporters switch their loyalty.

Threats –One of the biggest threats for the Left Front is its collapsing voter base. With most Bengali elites shifting towards the BJP, and the tribals moving towards TIPRA Motha, the Left Front will need more than just anti-BJP sentiment in order to win over new voters.

Opportunities – With TIPRA Motha willing to work with parties that give written assurances for bifurcation, the Left Front and Congress may have an opportunity to add more seats to their alliance.

(Edited by : Sudarsanan Mani)