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China's Jan-Feb imports and exports beat forecasts, signals global trade rebound
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China's Jan-Feb imports and exports beat forecasts, signals global trade rebound
Mar 6, 2024 8:26 PM

BEIJING, March 7 (Reuters) - China's export and import

growth in the January-February period beat forecasts, suggesting

global trade is turning a corner in an encouraging signal for

policymakers as they try to shore up a stuttering economic

recovery.

China's improved export data joins those of South Korea and

Germany, and Taiwan, who all saw their shipments top

expectations over the first two months of the year, with the

Asian economies benefiting from a surge in demand for

semiconductors.

Exports from the world's second-biggest economy in the two

months were 7.1% higher than a year before, customs data showed

on Thursday, beating a Reuters a poll that expected an increase

of 1.9%. Imports were up 3.5%, compared with a poll forecast for

growth of 1.5%.

"The better-than-forecast data echoes a recovery in global

trade driven by the electronics sector, but also benefits from a

low base effect, as export growth in January-February 2023 was

-6.8%," said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist

Intelligence Unit.

The customs agency publishes combined January and February

trade data to smooth out distortions caused by the shifting

timing of the Lunar New Year, which this year fell in February.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang on Tuesday announced an ambitious

2024 economic growth target of around 5% and promised to

transform the country's development model, which is heavily

reliant on exporting finished goods and industrial overcapacity.

China has been grappling with sub-par growth over the past

year amid a property crisis and as consumers hold off spending,

foreign firms divest, manufacturers struggle for buyers, and

local governments contend with huge debt burdens.

Policymakers have pledged to roll out further measures to

help shore up growth after the measures implemented since June

had only a modest effect, but analysts caution Beijing's fiscal

capacity is now very limited and note Li's address to the annual

meeting of the National People's Congress also failed to inspire

investor confidence.

Many analysts worry that China may begin flirting with

Japan-style stagnation later this decade unless policymakers

take steps to reorient the economy towards household consumption

and market-allocation of resources.

China's trade surplus grew to $125.16 billion, compared with

a forecast of $103.7 billion in the poll and $75.3 billion in

December.

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