BEIJING, March 7 (Reuters) - China's export and import
growth in the January-February period beat forecasts, suggesting
global trade is turning a corner in an encouraging signal for
policymakers as they try to shore up a stuttering economic
recovery.
China's improved export data joins those of South Korea and
Germany, and Taiwan, who all saw their shipments top
expectations over the first two months of the year, with the
Asian economies benefiting from a surge in demand for
semiconductors.
Exports from the world's second-biggest economy in the two
months were 7.1% higher than a year before, customs data showed
on Thursday, beating a Reuters a poll that expected an increase
of 1.9%. Imports were up 3.5%, compared with a poll forecast for
growth of 1.5%.
"The better-than-forecast data echoes a recovery in global
trade driven by the electronics sector, but also benefits from a
low base effect, as export growth in January-February 2023 was
-6.8%," said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist
Intelligence Unit.
The customs agency publishes combined January and February
trade data to smooth out distortions caused by the shifting
timing of the Lunar New Year, which this year fell in February.
Chinese Premier Li Qiang on Tuesday announced an ambitious
2024 economic growth target of around 5% and promised to
transform the country's development model, which is heavily
reliant on exporting finished goods and industrial overcapacity.
China has been grappling with sub-par growth over the past
year amid a property crisis and as consumers hold off spending,
foreign firms divest, manufacturers struggle for buyers, and
local governments contend with huge debt burdens.
Policymakers have pledged to roll out further measures to
help shore up growth after the measures implemented since June
had only a modest effect, but analysts caution Beijing's fiscal
capacity is now very limited and note Li's address to the annual
meeting of the National People's Congress also failed to inspire
investor confidence.
Many analysts worry that China may begin flirting with
Japan-style stagnation later this decade unless policymakers
take steps to reorient the economy towards household consumption
and market-allocation of resources.
China's trade surplus grew to $125.16 billion, compared with
a forecast of $103.7 billion in the poll and $75.3 billion in
December.