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AI and partnerships aim to reduce costs and speed
deployment
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Western automakers pressured by China's autonomous driving
advancements
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Nvidia's ( NVDA ) open-source platform seen as Tesla rival
By Abhirup Roy
LAS VEGAS, Jan 9 (Reuters) -
The short history of the self-driving car industry has been
littered with expensive failures and endless delays, but tech
suppliers, chipmakers including Nvidia ( NVDA ) and some automakers are
betting on AI and a web of partnerships to spark new progress.
Many interested automakers, however, still have major
questions. Apart from concerns about high costs and scalability,
they want to know if there is enough customer demand to make
money out of an expensive wager.
Vehicles that drive themselves would change the
transportation landscape, but making such a technology safe for
public roads has been harder and much more expensive than
expected.
While a few companies such as Alphabet's Waymo and
Tesla have decided to do it themselves, veterans such
as General Motors and Ford Motor ( F ) have abandoned
their in-house efforts for fully autonomous vehicles.
At the CES show in Las Vegas this week, AWS and German supplier
Aumovio announced a deal to support the commercial
rollout of self-driving vehicles, while autonomous truck firm
Kodiak AI and Bosch said they have partnered to ramp up
manufacturing of autonomous trucking hardware and sensors. AI
chip company Nvidia ( NVDA ) rolled out its next-generation
platform which will be used in a robotaxi alliance announced by
Lucid Group ( LCID ), Nuro and Uber ( UBER ).
Powered by Nvidia's ( NVDA ) chips, Mercedes-Benz said this
week it will launch a new advanced driver-assistance system in
the United States later this year that lets its vehicles operate
autonomously on city streets under driver supervision.
The propulsive force behind self-driving technology --
artificial intelligence - is also coming into its own as a
development tool, offering hopes of mitigating high costs.
AI and generative AI are acting as a "big accelerant" for
the industry "because it actually allows ... a significant
amount of development and validation with significantly fewer
resources," said Ozgur Tohumcu, general manager for automotive
and manufacturing at Amazon's ( AMZN ) cloud unit Amazon Web
Services.
Western automakers are also under pressure to keep up with
China's push to lead the development and adoption of autonomous
driving. Just last month, the Chinese government approved two
cars with Level 3 autonomous capabilities, which allows
hands-off driving. The auto industry has defined five levels of
autonomous driving, from cruise control at Level 1 to fully
self-driving, without a human minder needed, at Level 5.
Still, Jochen Hanebeck, CEO of German chipmaker Infineon
, cautioned against "market fantasy" that somehow
fully self-driving cars could become commonplace within a few
years.
Rather than risk fresh investments in fully self-driving,
major automakers want revenue-generating driver assistance
technology, known as Level 2, that is already available but
requires drivers to pay constant attention, he said.
"I don't see, really now, a tsunami flowing towards Level
5," Hanebeck said.
In recent months there has been a flurry of small robotaxi
deployments announced in China, the United States, Europe and
the Middle East, but Jeremy McClain, head of system and software
at Aumovio's autonomous mobility unit, said that expanding the
areas they cover requires more data, fleets and logistics,
"which is costly and expensive."
'MAKES US FEEL LIKE WE'RE THERE'
The self-driving car industry is long on hype.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk promised in 2019 that a year later
the electric vehicle maker would have a million self-driving
cars on the road. But Tesla launched a small robotaxi trial
service only last year, six years after Musk's bold
prediction.
The problem was that cars face billions of potential
unexpected incidents, or "edge cases," that can easily fool
self-driving vehicles. One example often touted by experts is
that if a human driver sees a ball rolling into the street, they
automatically slow because it might be pursued by a child - but
a self-driving car will react only when it sees the child.
After the first self-driving bubble burst, major automakers
including Ford and GM abandoned money-losing autonomous vehicle
units. The demise of GM's Cruise was accelerated by an incident
in which it struck and dragged a pedestrian 20 feet (6 meters).
But Ali Kani, general manager of the automotive team at
Nvidia ( NVDA ), said AI has enabled advances to address key weaknesses
in self-driving technology.
"There's some foundational pieces of technology that make us
feel like we're there," Kani said.
Morgan Stanley analysts in a note on CES said that while
Nvidia's ( NVDA ) new Alpamayo platform for self-driving would give
legacy carmakers a leg up and help them pressure Tesla, the EV
maker was years ahead. That said, many in the industry see
Nvidia ( NVDA ), whose platform is open-source, as a convenient place for
Tesla rivals to gather.
"In one way, you could almost see Apple ( AAPL ) and Android
playing out," said Russell Ong, former product lead at
self-driving vehicle maker Zoox, referring to Tesla's
proprietary system versus Nvidia's ( NVDA ) decision to release Alpamayo
as an open-source model.