*

Trump suggests he may negotiate with Xi over exports of

Nvidia

AI chip

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Exporting lesser version of Nvidia's ( NVDA ) Blackwell would still

cut

U.S. AI advantage

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Allowing the chips to China could effectively do away with

AI

chip export controls

By Karen Freifeld

Oct 29 (Reuters) - If the Trump administration allows

Nvidia ( NVDA ) to sell a version of its best AI chip to China,

as the President opened the door to on Wednesday, experts say it

would severely decrease the American advantage in artificial

intelligence.

It could also effectively spell the end of U.S. chip export

restrictions, which were put in place in 2022 to make sure

Beijing's military would not benefit from American technology,

and to slow the development of China's AI efforts.

"If we decide to export B30As, it would dramatically shrink

the U.S.'s main advantage it currently has over China in AI,"

said Tim Fist, co-author of a just-completed analysis of the

impact of allowing China the B30A chip, a downgraded version of

Nvidia's ( NVDA ) state-of-the-art Blackwell chip.

TRUMP MAY DISCUSS 'SUPER-DUPER' CHIP

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he may speak

to Chinese President Xi Jinping about Nvidia's ( NVDA ) "super-duper"

Blackwell chip at their Thursday meeting. The comments echoed

those he made in August suggesting he might allow a 30 or 50

percent scaled-down version of Nvidia's ( NVDA ) top chip to China.

But, Fist said, the B30A is a version of the best Nvidia ( NVDA )

chip in different packaging: China could buy twice as many and

get the same result, likely at the same price.

A spokesperson for Nvidia ( NVDA ) declined comment.

In the paper, published on Saturday, Fist and his co-authors

analyzed nine scenarios covering a range of export strategies

the administration might take for a downgraded Blackwell chip.

BEST- AND WORST-CASE SCENARIOS

In the best scenario, where no powerful chips are exported

to China next year, the U.S. would have 30 times the AI

computing power than China.

In the worst, where the U.S. allows the export of the B30A

and comparable chips from other U.S. companies, China could

surpass the U.S. in terms of how much AI computing power they

gain in 2026.

Even in a median scenario, where a small amount of the chips

is exported, the U.S. advantage shrinks to four times China's

computing power, the analysis found.

"If any meaningful quantities are allowed, it's a huge

change," said Fist, director of emerging technology policy at

the Institute for Progress, a Washington-based think tank. "It's

functionally ending the export control regime that we have

today."

Chris McGuire, a national security and technology expert

who served in the U.S. State Department until last summer,

agreed.

"If this chip is allowed to go, there are effectively no

AI chip export controls anymore," McGuire said. "The reason we

have a big advantage on AI is because we have big advantages in

computing power and in chips. If we give that away, best case

is, it's like a tie. Worst case, we fall behind."

"We would be trading China our most advanced technology for

soybean purchases," McGuire said.