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GLOBAL ECONOMY-Euro zone factories stuck in a rut as Asia shows tentative signs of recovery
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GLOBAL ECONOMY-Euro zone factories stuck in a rut as Asia shows tentative signs of recovery
Sep 2, 2024 3:35 AM

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Euro zone factories remained mired in contraction

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China Caixin PMI grows in August in contrast to official

survey

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Japan's factory activity contracts at milder pace

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U.S. slowdown, election uncertainty cloud outlook

(Adds detail in paragraphs 1, 3, 5-11; comment in paragraph 4)

By Jonathan Cable and Leika Kihara

LONDON/TOKYO, Sept 2 (Reuters) - Factories in the euro

zone remained mired in contraction last month, surveys showed,

with the data suggesting a recovery could be some way off but

Asian and British manufacturers showed tentative signs of

recovery.

However, analysts say prospects of slowing U.S. growth,

which is likely to lead to interest rate cuts by the Federal

Reserve this month, and uncertainty over the outcome of the

presidential election there cloud the trade outlook.

HCOB's final euro zone manufacturing Purchasing Managers'

Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, stood at 45.8 in August,

just ahead of a 45.6 preliminary estimate but well below the 50

mark separating growth from contraction.

"The final August manufacturing PMI reading was yet another

indication the recovery of the industrial sector will neither be

immediate nor vigorous, as the euro zone index remains stuck in

contractionary territory," said Riccardo Marcelli Fabiani at

Oxford Economics.

A PMI covering new orders sank to its lowest since December

and demand from abroad also fell at the fastest rate this year.

That decline came as euro zone manufacturers raised their

prices for the first time in 16 months, driven by factories in

France, the Netherlands, Greece and Italy.

Still, overall inflation in the currency bloc fell to a

three-year low of 2.2% in August, preliminary official data

showed on Friday, strengthening the case for further policy

easing from the European Central Bank.

It will cut its deposit rate twice more this year, in

September and December, according to more than 80% of economists

in an August Reuters poll, fewer reductions than markets

currently expect.

The downturn in German manufacturing accelerated and in

France activity contracted at the fastest pace since January.

But in Britain factories had their strongest month in more

than two years as demand at home offset a fall in exports,

adding to signs of momentum in the economy.

That poses a favourable backdrop for the new government of

Prime Minister Keir Starmer who is seeking to speed up growth.

CHIPS

Asian chip makers benefited from firm demand but economic

headwinds pose a risk to the region.

China's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in

August from 49.8 in July, beating analysts' forecasts.

The reading, mostly covering smaller, export-oriented firms,

shows a more optimistic view than an official PMI survey on

Saturday, which indicated an ongoing decline in manufacturing

activity.

"The PMIs for August suggest economic momentum held broadly

steady last month, with modest improvements in manufacturing and

services helping to offset a further slowdown in construction

activity," Gabriel Ng, assistant economist at Capital Economics,

said in a research note on China's PMI.

"But with factory gate price declines accelerating, the

economy clearly remains at risk of slipping back into

deflation," Ng said.

Factory activity in South Korea and Taiwan also expanded in

August, while Japan saw a slower rate of contraction due in part

to solid global demand for semiconductors.

Japanese manufacturers also gained from a rebound in car

output after a safety scandal led some plants to temporarily

suspend production.

But manufacturing activity contracted in Malaysia and

Indonesia, surveys showed, underscoring the pain some of the

region's economies are facing from China's prolonged slowdown.

"Chip-producing countries are doing fairly well, but China's

slowdown will continue to drag on Asia's manufacturing activity

for quite some time," said Toru Nishihama, chief emerging market

economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

"Slowing U.S. demand could add to the pain on Asian

economies, many of which are already wary of the fallout from

sluggish Chinese growth," he said.

Japan's final au Jibun Bank Japan manufacturing PMI rose to

49.8 in August, in contractionary territory for a second month

but less sharply than in July.

South Korea's PMI stood at 51.9, up from 51.4 in July, in

part due to strong customer confidence and new orders in the

domestic market. Malaysia's PMI held at 49.7 while Indonesia's

fell to 48.9.

India's manufacturing activity growth eased to a three-month

low as demand softened significantly, casting another shadow

over the otherwise robust economic outlook.

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