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GRAPHIC-How some hedge funds would trade a rate cutting cycle
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GRAPHIC-How some hedge funds would trade a rate cutting cycle
Sep 21, 2024 12:35 AM

LONDON, Sept 18 (Reuters) - While many investors hope

falling interest rates will usher in a soft economic landing,

others forecast a calm before the storm.

Here are hypothetical trading ideas shared by three hedge

funds on what is next for the U.S. and global economies at the

start of a U.S. easing cycle.

They said regulations prevented them from revealing their

actual trading positions or making recommendations.

1/ CONFIDO CAPITAL

* Amplified income strategies

* Launched in 2024

* Key trade: Short risk assets, buy protection on high yield

credit

Brad Boyd, founder of Confido Capital, said the anticipation

of lower rates has fuelled rosy equity and credit price levels

that creates an asymmetry of risks in the market.

He said he would short any kind of risk asset like stocks,

the bonds of companies which might have a low-quality balance

sheet, real estate or emerging markets. Against this, he would

buy credit default swaps, sometimes likened to a form of

insurance in bond markets.

A short position bets that an asset's price will fall, while

a long position bets on a rise.

Rather than pick a particular company, Boyd would take long

positions via the index, HY CDX, a basket of credit default

swaps, or insurance premiums on 100 high yield bonds in the U.S.

In the short term, Boyd warned that markets were overpriced

for Fed easing and could take a hit if cuts did not live up to

expectations.

"There could be plenty of hand-wringing and crying in the

streets," said Boyd.

2/ MONROE CAPITAL ( MRCC )

* Direct lending and alternative credit solutions

* Size: $19.5 billion

* Founded in 2004

* Key trade: opportunistic buying in secondaries markets

Kyle Asher, managing director and co-head of alternative

credit solutions at Monroe Capital ( MRCC ), would look to the

secondaries market to see Fed rate cuts play out.

Secondaries markets trade financial instruments such as

stocks, bonds and loans -- most often from private equity

investors -- but also from any investor selling to another

investor.

"The rate cuts will buoy many sectors that will benefit from

paying lower interest rates on their loans including software,

business services and media companies," said Asher.

Fed rate cuts typically filter out across the economy,

pushing the cost of borrowing for corporates and consumers down.

"A lot of the more medium sized private companies have loans

trading around 70 to 80 cents which will see their cash flow

rise when the cost of borrowing falls," said Asher.

As the cost of servicing their debt falls, companies will be

able to spend more on measures that boost their production,

their growth such as research and development, more marketing

and more staff, added Asher.

3/ ANALOG CENTURY MANAGEMENT

* Hard tech focused long/short fund

* Size: $1.8 bln

* Founded in 2018

* Long chip makers for auto and industrial applications

Val Zlatev's hedge fund Analog Century Management is

focused on hard tech, meaning companies that manufacture

semiconductors, communication equipment and system hardware.

He divides them into two groups: secular growth companies

and manufacturers that are much more exposed to mature

applications spending such as the hardware that goes into

smartphones and PCs.

"Semiconductor stocks exposed to industrial and automotive

have been suffering for quite a while. Revenues have fallen and

many have technically been in recession already for a number of

quarters," said Zlatev.

If rates falling rejuvenates industrial spending and makes

it easier for consumers to borrow money to buy cars, earnings

will expand and that will be reflected in the stock price of

these companies, he says.

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