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GRAPHIC-Take Five: Crypto bulls and euro bears
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GRAPHIC-Take Five: Crypto bulls and euro bears
Nov 15, 2024 1:23 AM

Nov 15 (Reuters) - Chip behemoth Nvidia ( NVDA ) is reporting

quarterly results and global PMI data is rolling in as markets

continue to digest the fallout from Donald Trump's U.S.

presidential election win, with bitcoin and the euro taking

centre-stage.

Here's a look at the week ahead for markets from Rae Wee in

Singapore, Ira Iosebashvili in New York, Sam Indyk, Naomi

Rovnick and Amanda Cooper in London.

1/CHIP, CHIP, HURRAY

The U.S. earnings season is coming to a close with third

quarter results from chipmaker Nvidia ( NVDA ), a bellwether for

the artificial intelligence craze that has boosted stocks this

year.

Nvidia's ( NVDA ) chips are seen as the gold standard in the AI-space

and its shares are up nearly 200% this year, a gain that saw it

dethrone Apple as the world's most valuable company in October.

The chipmaker's hefty weighting in the S&P 500 has helped drive

the index to record highs in 2024.

But Nvidia's ( NVDA ) blistering multi-year run has also raised the

bar for earnings outperformance - a slip-up could fuel worries

that the market's AI hopes have outstripped reality.

Analysts see Nvidia ( NVDA ) increasing third-quarter revenue by over

80% to $32.9 billion when it reports its results on Nov. 20,

LSEG data showed earlier this month.

2/ A $100,000 QUESTION

Trump's win has unleashed a stampede of crypto bulls intent

on driving bitcoin to the moon. The price has risen 30% since

the Nov. 5 election day and, having topped $90,000 for the first

time on record, is showing no signs of stopping.

The entire crypto market has surpassed $3 trillion for the

first time on record. Bitcoin and co are worth about as much as

Elon Musk's Tesla, Facebook parent Meta and

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway put together.

The promise of light-touch U.S. regulation means investors

can't get enough of bitcoin right now. Flows into

exchange-traded funds have rocketed in recent days. LSEG data

shows the largest ETFs tracked by Reuters took in a net $3.5

billion in the week to Nov. 14, the most since March 15. There

seems to be little standing in the way a six-figure bitcoin

price tag.

3/A QUESTION OF PARITY

Threats of Trump tariffs are heightening fears about the

weak euro area economy and the common currency has been

flailing. But how low could it go?

At around $1.054, the euro has slumped about 5%

from more than one-year highs in September. Some analysts now

expect it to fall to parity with the dollar.

The last ZEW Institute survey showed German investor

confidence is gloomy while traders see a one in five chance the

European Central Bank will cut rates by 50 basis points next

month. Breakdown German GDP data due out on Nov 22 might give

more hints.

Look out for silver linings, though. A weaker euro boosts

exporters and faster rate cuts could juice up bank lending and

business activity.

4/ AT YOUR SERVICE

Friday's preliminary survey data on business activity will

sketch a picture of the global economy before Trump returns to

the White House in January.

PMIs from Europe and the U.S. will likely confirm that

global manufacturing activity remains stuck in a downturn, while

the services sector soldiers ahead.

Each country is facing its own unique uncertainties.

Germany's flagging economy is on the cusp of new elections,

Britain's employers are bracing for a rise in social security

contributions expected to hit hiring and costs. But it's Trump's

re-election that is dominating the outlook.

The survey could give early indications on how U.S.

companies are responding to the threat of Trump's proposed

import tariffs - possibly boosting inventories before tariffs

kick in - a data point that will be closely watched by markets

going forward.

5/ THE RUPIAH CONUNDRUM

Indonesia's central bank will decide on interest rates on

Wednesday and it is a toss up whether the policy makers will

ease rates or stand pat.

Slowing inflation, disappointing growth and the Fed's recent

rate cut cement the case for further easing. But the weakening

rupiah, currently languishing near three-month lows and

down more than 4% from this year's peak, is putting a spanner in

the works for a central bank whose main mandate is to maintain

currency stability, even though much of that might be driven by

the strong dollar.

Elsewhere in emerging markets, rate decisions in Turkey and

South Africa are due on Thursday. South African policymakers are

expected to deliver a 25 basis point cut at their final meeting

of the year. Upward revisions to inflation forecasts in Turkey

make chances of any near-term easing unlikely.

(Graphics by Pasit Kongkunakornkul, Vineet Sachdev, Kripa

Jayaram, Sumanta Sen and Prinz Magtulis; compiled by Karin

Strohecker; editing by Philippa Fletcher)

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