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Budget will aim to address slowest pace of growth in four
years
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Economists expect tax cuts and further job creation
measures
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India seeking to preemptively lower tariffs to cope with
Trump
trade policies
By Shivangi Acharya
NEW DELHI, Feb 1 (Reuters) - Indian Prime Minister
Narendra Modi faces the challenges of reviving growth and giving
relief to a middle class hit by rising living costs, while also
preparing for an uncertain year of global trade, when his
government unveils its budget on Saturday.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the budget
for the next fiscal year in parliament at 0530 GMT.
She may provide a policy boost for the world's fifth-largest
economy, which is expected to post its slowest pace of growth in
four years, amid frail urban demand and inflation risks fuelled
by a weak currency.
The slowing economy has rattled the equity market and led to
more Indians becoming less hopeful about their quality of life
under Modi's rule.
Economists expect the budget to ease the burden on
individuals through tax cuts on income and energy products and
to build on the $24 billion programme of job creation schemes
announced in the first post-election budget in July.
DEREGULATION DRIVE
Speaking before the start of Friday's parliamentary session,
Modi said the budget "will give new faith and trust" to the
country, without giving any hints of the steps that would be
taken to shore up economic growth.
"We expect the government to unveil targeted
growth-supportive fiscal policies, with minimum disruption to
the fiscal consolidation roadmap," said Sonal Varma, economist
at Nomura.
The government is expected to slightly better its fiscal
deficit target for the current year, while lowering it to below
4.5% in the coming year that begins on April 1.
The country's chief economic advisor, in a report released
on Friday, forecast India's economy would remain sluggish in the
next fiscal year and advocated long-delayed reforms in areas
such as land and labour to boost medium-term growth.
While near-term growth is in line with the 10-year average,
India needs a growth rate of 8% to meet its longer term economic
goals and create enough jobs for its large, youthful population.
For this, Indian states, along with the centre, must pursue
systematic deregulation as a priority, the survey said. Areas in
which regulations need to be eased range from land to labour and
factories, it said.
India lags its own target to be a $5 trillion economy by
2025. Modi aims for the nation to be a developed economy by
2047.
BRACING FOR TRUMP'S TARIFFS
India will also have to cope with possible global
disruptions from U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policies.
India is trying to preemptively lower tariffs on goods to save
itself from Trump's threatened tariffs.
To align with Trump's "America First" policy, Reuters
reported India was ready to offer more incentives such as tax
cuts and land access to U.S. companies in industries such as
semiconductors and electronics.
Modi is expected to discuss these issues with Trump later in
February.
The lowering of tariffs on some of the goods could be part
of the budget too, with India seeking to take advantage of
U.S.-China trade tensions to increase its own share of global
supply chains.
The list is likely to include components for mobile phone
assembly such as printed circuit board assembly, parts of camera
modules, and USB cables, sources have said.
(Editing by Alex Richardson)