A poll conducted by Taiwan’s Institute for National Defence and Security Research reveals that a majority of Taiwanese citizens believe a Chinese invasion is unlikely within the next five years. This survey involved around 1,200 participants and highlights the current sentiment in Taiwan regarding potential military threats from China.

What Happened: 61% of respondents consider an attack by China “unlikely or very unlikely” in the near future. Despite this, many Taiwanese still view China’s territorial ambitions as a significant threat, as noted by Christina Chen, a researcher at the institute, according to Reuters on Wednesday.

The poll also reveals that over 67% of Taiwanese are willing to resist if an attack occurs, though opinions are divided on the capability of Taiwan’s military to defend the island. Additionally, mixed sentiments exist about U.S. involvement in Taiwan’s defense, with 74% expecting indirect support but only 52% believing in direct military intervention. Researcher Lee Kuan-chen emphasized the need for transparency in Taiwan-U.S. security cooperation to manage public expectations effectively.

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Why It Matters: The geopolitical landscape surrounding Taiwan has significant implications for the global semiconductor industry. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. ( TSM ) a key player in the industry, has seen its stock soar by 96% over the past year, driven by increased demand for AI chips. The company is advancing its 2-nanometer technology, keeping it ahead of China by at least a decade, as noted by Taiwan's National Science and Technology Council.

The evolving geopolitical tensions have led Taiwanese chip firms, including Alchip Techs, to expand operations in Japan, reshaping the global semiconductor landscape. This move aligns with the U.S. efforts to curb China’s advancements in cutting-edge semiconductors.

Recent political developments, such as U.S. President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race, have impacted Taiwanese stocks, including United Microelectronics Corp. ( UMC ) and ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. ( ASX ) , which experienced dips in the U.S. pre-market. These fluctuations underscore the sensitivity of Taiwanese companies to geopolitical shifts.

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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of Benzinga Neuro and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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