The artificial intelligence infrastructure boom is no longer just lifting a handful of semiconductor stocks like Nvidia Corp. ( NVDA ) , Micron Technology Inc. ( MU ) and Intel Corp. ( INTC ) .

Goldman Sachs says it is now reshaping the entire U.S. business investment cycle.

In a research note published Monday, the bank lifted its 2026 forecast for U.S. business investment to 7.8% on a fourth-quarter-over-fourth-quarter basis, from 6.5% previously.

Driving the upgrade is the pace of AI spending: an annualized $650 billion in the first quarter, tracking toward more than $800 billion by year-end.

AI Capex Is Becoming A Macro Force

“AI-related spending will continue to boost equipment and structures investment in 2026 as companies press ahead with the infrastructure buildout,” Goldman Sachs economist Elsie Peng wrote in a note.

The spending wave stretches far beyond chips.

Economists at the bank say AI investment is now flowing into servers, semiconductors, memory storage, power infrastructure, data centers, software and research and development.

"Our analysis suggests that AI-related spending will boost true capex growth by about 3.3pp in 2026," Peng said.

However, the direct impact on GDP growth is expected to remain relatively modest. The gap exists because semiconductor investment is still partially undercounted in official GDP statistics, according to the report.

"We estimate that AI-related spending will add 0.3pp to true GDP growth but only 0.1pp to measured GDP growth in 2026," Peng said, noting that a large portion of the equipment is imported.

Trump’s OBBBA Incentives Add Another Tailwind

Goldman also said new tax provisions included in the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" are beginning to show up in investment data.

The bank expects the legislation's expanded expensing provisions to boost capex growth by roughly 3 percentage points in 2026, with the strongest impact concentrated in manufacturing, transportation and industrial sectors.

"We and other forecasters expected strong AI spending and new tax incentives to support solid capex growth in 2026, and early data look broadly consistent with that view,"

At the same time, two major drags that weighed on investment in 2025 are beginning to fade.

The slowdown in manufacturing construction linked to the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act is expected to subtract less from growth this year, while tariff-related uncertainty is also easing.

Goldman estimates that tariffs shaved roughly 1.5 percentage points off capex growth in 2025 but expects the drag to decline to 0.7 percentage points in 2026.

Higher Oil Prices Are Not Stopping The Investment Cycle

Despite the recent surge in oil prices tied to Middle East tensions, Goldman does not believe energy costs will materially derail the broader investment boom.

"We do not expect higher oil prices to have a material impact on overall capex growth," Peng wrote.