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Stocks regain some losses after trading halt lifted
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Central bank has intervened aggressively to defend rupiah
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Bourse changes trading rules to anticipate stock selloff
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BI to weigh rate cut decision against FX weakness,
analysts say
(Adds analysts quotes in paragraphs 16-19 and changes keywords
for media subscribers, previously INDONESIA-STOCKS)
By Stefanno Sulaiman
JAKARTA, April 8 (Reuters) - Indonesia's stock market
sank on Tuesday, prompting a 30-minute trading halt, while the
rupiah fell to a record low as markets reopened after an
extended holiday break and reacted to the global market turmoil
caused by U.S. tariffs.
The main index fell 9.2% to its weakest since June
2021 in early trade. After the trading suspension was lifted,
the index recouped some of its losses and was down 7.6% by 0704
GMT.
The rupiah fell 1.8% to as low as 16,850 per dollar,
surpassing its Asian Financial Crisis trough to its weakest on
record, according to LSEG data.
The central bank has and will continue to "intervene
aggressively" in the spot foreign exchange, domestic
non-deliverable forward (NDF) and bond markets, as well as in
the offshore NDF market, to stabilise the rupiah, Fitra
Jusdiman, a Bank Indonesia (BI) official said.
However, some analysts predict further declines, even as the
stock exchange modifies trading rules to prevent excessive
selloffs.
Ahead of Tuesday's market opening, the exchange tightened
auto-rejection rules for share transactions. Now, if a stock
falls by 15%, sell orders would be automatically rejected,
compared with the previous trigger of a share price fall of
between 20% and 35%.
The bourse stated that a fall of 8% in the main index would
trigger a 30-minute trading halt, expanded from 5% previously.
Another 30-minute halt is triggered if the market then extended
losses to 15%.
A decline of more than 20% would result in trading being
suspended for the rest of the day, which the bourse said would
allow investors "liquidity space and opportunity" to process
information. The previous trigger for such suspension was a 15%
drop.
"These are taken in anticipation of market conditions. We do
not want to create panic, but we want domestic and foreign
investors to have confidence that we give them enough room to
transact after more than a week of break," IDX chief executive
Iman Rachman told a press conference.
Trading rules could be adjusted back when conditions return
to normal, an IDX executive said.
Oktavianus Audi, a vice president at brokerage Kiwoom
Sekuritas, said the new auto-reject rules could provide some
support for the stock index, but emphasised that the rule
changes would only serve as short-term measures.
"Basically, the concern in the market is caused by
macroeconomic factors and Trump's tariff policy," he said.
"So in our opinion, to ease market pressure we need
strategic measures by the government to maintain the rupiah's
stability, ensure economic growth remains above 5% and a
strategic response to maintain Indonesia's trade surplus," Audi
said.
RATE CUTS?
Fitra at BI said the central bank would continue its market
stabilisation efforts to maintain market confidence while it
monitors developments.
Several economists expected more dovish moves by the U.S.
Federal Reserve which may give BI space for bigger rate cuts, or
bring them forward, to bolster growth. However, policymakers
would have to weigh that against the impact on the rupiah.
"Further one-sided weakness in the rupiah, due to global
uncertainties and lingering lack of clarity on domestic issues,
might push the markets to price out rate cuts this year," said
DBS Bank economist Radhika Rao.
Potential more Fed rate cuts, as well as low inflation
domestically, would provide room for BI to cut rates, said Bank
Danamon economist Hosianna Situmorang, adding that annual
inflation in March was 1.03%, below the central bank's target
range.
Brokerage Mandiri Sekuritas, in a note to clients, said it
expected less impact from tariffs on Indonesian equities
compared with other markets due to its more domestically-driven
economy. It predicted Jakarta could outperform other markets
should there be any softening in the U.S. position on tariffs.
Indonesian markets closed on March 27 for Eid al-Fitr
holidays and are catching up with global market movements
following the U.S. tariff announcement last week, which included
a plan for a 32% tariff on Indonesian products.
Markets were already under pressure before the break due to
concerns over Indonesia's fiscal policy and growth prospects.
Jakarta plans to pursue negotiations rather than retaliate
against the U.S. tariffs, proposing to buy more U.S. products.