Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is making countries and foreign policy experts think of a similar situation in the Taiwan strait. Tensions between China and Taiwan spiked last year after a visit by Nancy Pelosi, then speaker of the House of Representatives. Experts now warn that rather than a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the possibility of China imposing a quarantine over Taiwan is far more possible.

Such a move may strongly put to test America’s global leadership and role in the region. A quarantine would mean imposing controls on the air and maritime routes around Taiwan and the movement of ships, aircraft, raw material and people to and from Taiwan.

Taiwan has considered itself independent of China since 1949, but China considers Taiwan a part of its own territory with an aim to eventually unify it with China. In December, China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) had conducted strike drills in the sea and airspace around Taiwan, in response to a move by the United States to step up Taiwanese military assistance.

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“One of the major impacts of the Ukraine-Russia war is that the world realised that nasty brutal warfare is a real thing. Many Taiwanese see themselves in a similar predicament. Taiwan is clearly one of the hotspots where something similar can happen in future," said Denny Roy, Senior Fellow, The East West Centre. Roy also highlighted that a possible Chinese quarantine over Taiwan for two-three years could seriously the impact the confidence in US leadership in the region.

The Taiwan government has stepped up civil defence training for its citizens to prepare them for a situation similar to the one in Ukraine. Civilians are being given training in the handling and use of weapons. The United States too is expanding its military training in Taiwan. According to Nikkei, the US National Guard has been training Taiwan’s military since before spring of 2022.

Kitsch Liao, Assistant Director Global China Hub, Atlantic Council, highlighted that Taiwan has not had a national security strategy since 2008 and in a kinetic conflict, a lot would depend on potential US military intervention. “It is difficult to create a national security strategy when your fate is not in your hands. The US does not have a treaty obligation to defend Taiwan and this delicate balance to maintain duel deterrence (inability to commit to Taiwan’s defence) can impact the morale of the Taiwanese people," said Liao, who added that efforts must be made to accelerate Taiwan’s attempts to make it more defensible and in creating a war reserve stock. He said issues around acquisition of military equipment from United States must be resolved.

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On the question of whether US should continue with strategic ambiguity over Taiwan’s defence, Roy said the policy allowed the US to work with more options. “A strong strategic clarity could invite a strong response from China. With strategic ambiguity, the US is able to work with Taiwan towards 100 percent possible deterrence, and avoiding a direct provocative stand was also good for peace in the region," he said.

Any possible conflict between Taiwan and China has implications for India, which has a long-standing, historical border dispute with China which has only worsened after the Galwan clashes. “How India reacted to the Ukraine war does not symbolise how it will react to any conflict in Taiwan. India has not explicitly defined its Taiwan strategy like the One China Principle of China, and the One China Policy adopted by the US. In recent times, India has not reaffirmed the One China Policy in bilateral engagements as China does not respect the One India Principle,” said Dhruva Jaishankar, Executive Director, ORF America. Jaishankar said that Taiwan does matter to India and any loss of US power in the region will carry grave consequences.

Also read: China sanctions US defence major Lockheed Martin, Raytheon on Taiwan arms sales

It would be interesting to see how the rhetoric over the Ukraine-Russia war and China-Taiwan tensions plays out during the upcoming US Presidential campaign. Jaishankar said that some Republican candidates do not perceive Russia as a threat but consider China a systemic rival.

One thing is clear — Taiwan’s future status could be a key determining factor in the global leadership contest between US and China.

(The views were expressed by experts during the India-Taiwan journalists dialogue organised by the East West Centre in Washington, DC. This correspondent was a member of the Indian delegation attending the dialogue)