* IATA chief Walsh says months before jet fuel supplies
recover
* Refinery damage may delay jet fuel supply recovery,
says Walsh
* Delta expects $2 bln extra costs from jet fuel in Q2
* Airline shares rally on ceasefire and Hormuz reopening
hopes
* TUI assessing how to get stranded cruise ships back
By Yi-Chin Lee, Julie Zhu and Alessandro Parodi
SINGAPORE/HONG KONG, April 8 (Reuters) - U.S. President
Donald Trump's two-week ceasefire with Iran is unlikely to
provide immediate relief to the global aviation industry as it
reels from its worst crisis in years, executives said on
Wednesday, even as airline shares rallied after the deal.
Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air
Transport Association (IATA), warned it would take months for
jet fuel supply to recover even if Iran reopened the Strait of
Hormuz, given disruptions to Middle East refining capacity.
Delta Air Lines ( DAL ) forecast lower-than-expected profit
for the second quarter and said it would cut capacity across the
board to make up for the $2 billion in extra fuel costs it
expects to book in the second quarter.
OIL PRICES DROP AFTER CEASEFIRE DEAL
Fuel is the second-largest expense for airlines after
labour, typically accounting for about 27% of operating
expenses.
Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz has choked supplies
of jet fuel globally, and news of a ceasefire and the
possibility of safe passage through the Strait sent airline
stocks soaring.
Oil fell below $100 per barrel after Trump said he had
agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, subject to the
Strait's immediate and safe reopening.
But comments from executives and experts across the industry
highlight deepening pain for airlines facing a doubling of jet
fuel prices and worries about constrained supplies.
Carriers across the world have been hiking fares, cutting
flights, carrying extra fuel from home airports and adding
refueling stops as the Middle East conflict squeezes supply.
Walsh told reporters that while he expected crude oil prices
to fall, jet fuel costs were likely to remain slightly elevated
due to the impact on refineries.
"If it were to reopen and remain open, I think it will still
take a period of months to get back to where supply needs to be
given the disruption to the refining capacity in the Middle
East," Walsh said.
AIRLINE SHARES SURGE, BUT TOURISM RECOVERY WILL TAKE TIME
Jet fuel prices normally move in tandem with oil prices, but
they have more than doubled since the Iran conflict, far
outpacing a 50% rise in crude prices prior to the two-week
ceasefire.
That has inflated costs, disrupted schedules, prompted
airlines to cut routes and pushed the limits of what travelers
will pay.
On Wednesday, Delta said it expects to pay about $4.30 a
gallon for jet fuel in the June quarter, adding more than $2
billion to the price a year earlier.
Even so, global airline and travel stocks rose. Australia's
Qantas Airways ( QUBSF ) jumped more than 9%, Air New Zealand ( ANZFF )
rose over 4%, Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific
climbed 5% and while India's IndiGo rose 8%.
In Europe, travel operator TUI was up more than
12%, Wizz Air ( WZZAF ) gained 10%, Air France-KLM
climbed around 14%, and Lufthansa was up 11% by 1132
GMT, outperforming gains in European equity indexes. U.S.
airlines rallied in premarket trading too.
While jet fuel supply disruption remains a risk, the
ceasefire provided "a buying opportunity for quality airlines",
analysts at Panmure Liberum said in a note.
STRANDED CRUISE SHIPS AND LONG RECOVERY FOR TOURISM
TUI said it was looking at options for its two cruise ships
- "Mein Schiff 4" and "Mein Schiff 5" - which have been stranded
in Abu Dhabi and Doha since the war began.
Skeleton crews are keeping the ships operational, according
to the company. It will take at least four weeks to ready them
for their next planned trips, depending on the route, weather,
and operational conditions.
Even with travel through key transit hubs potentially
reopening with a ceasefire, the Middle East's tourism industry -
worth some $367 billion - will also take time to recover.
It could take months even in a best-case scenario, Oxford
Economics economist Aaron Goldring said in a briefing.
"You basically have a tail of around seven months post
ceasefire of sentiment impact," Goldring said, "with the
perception of safety coming back quite gradually."