financetom
World
financetom
/
World
/
Analysis-Investors bet on Europe's smaller companies to dodge tariff fallout, strong euro
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Analysis-Investors bet on Europe's smaller companies to dodge tariff fallout, strong euro
Jul 25, 2025 11:01 PM

LONDON (Reuters) -Europe's smaller companies are emerging as a popular vehicle for investors to help insulate portfolios against both tariffs and a stronger euro, as cheaper credit and the prospect of more government spending bolster confidence in the economic outlook.

The domestic-leaning bias of smaller companies makes them less vulnerable to levies on cross-border goods and they are also less exposed to currency swings when the euro strengthens, making euro-zone exports more expensive abroad.

The STOXX Europe small- and mid-cap indexes have risen 9% and 11% this year, respectively, beating the STOXX Europe large-cap index, which has risen just 7%.

U.S. President Donald Trump has bagged a handful of trade agreements with global partners since unveiling sweeping global levies in April, the most significant of which was a deal with Japan this week.

But there is still no deal with the European Union and an August 1 deadline is just days away. Speculation swirled on Wednesday of a 15% rate for the EU, but was quickly dismissed by the White House.

"One of the benefits of small-caps is that they are a bit more insulated from a geographical standpoint," said Ingmar Schaefer, a portfolio manager at Van Lanschot Kempen.

"Whatever happens with U.S. tariffs, a local company will not be impacted by as much as a global player in the same field."

An analysis by Goldman Sachs found that companies in the STOXX large-cap index generate about 35% of their revenue in Europe, compared to 60% of revenue generated by companies in the small- and mid-cap indexes.

That has helped to offset a stronger currency. The euro has risen over 12% in 2025 to around $1.17, defying predictions prior to the April 2 "Liberation Day" tariff announcements that it could even reach parity with the dollar. But that was upended by investors turning their back on U.S. assets.

Some analysts now expect the euro to hit $1.20, a possible headwind for larger companies due to greater international exposure, but a relative tailwind for smaller companies.

"The way people have played Europe in the past is to be apologists for Europe, targeting businesses that have high revenue exposure to the U.S. or the Asian consumer through the luxury sector," said Harry Eastwood, investment director at Artemis Investment Management.

"Liberation Day slightly disrupted the global order of trade and small- and mid-caps have become much more interesting, purely from the fact that they're somewhat insulated from that," Eastwood said, adding that his fund was at the upper limit of its small- and mid-caps weighting.

DISCOUNT SHRINKS

Historically, smaller companies have tended to trade at a premium to large ones, as they generally exhibit higher growth rates.

But the situation reversed in 2023 and 2024, as inflation in Europe soared and the European Central Bank raised borrowing costs, leading smaller companies to now trade at a discount to bigger ones.

Small-caps traded at a record discount of 11% to larger companies in March this year but that has since shrunk.

The STOXX Europe small-cap index currently trades at 13.4 times forward earnings, below the large-cap index's 14.3 times, a discount of 6.5%.

"We've been in a situation where most investors have had less confidence in the earnings of small companies compared to large companies which is why they traded at a discount," said David Walton, fund manager at Marlborough.

"But in the last month, we've seen a slight increase in confidence in the earnings outlook for small companies which is supporting the rally."

European small- and mid-sized companies have registered net inflows for the last 10 weeks straight, the longest such stretch since 2021, according to Lipper fund flows data.

Germany, the euro area's biggest economy, has unveiled a massive spending push, while the ECB has begun to lower interest rates. Both could spur the euro zone economy, giving it a much-needed boost after years of subdued growth.

Germany's SDAX small-cap index, has jumped almost 20% since the federal election in February, while the blue-chip DAX has risen 8.4% in the same period.

The ECB paused its rate-cutting cycle this week, but the deposit rate is 200 basis points lower than it was in the middle of last year.

"When we look at the next 12 months we think there can definitely be a re-rating of small caps vis-à-vis large caps," said Van Lanschot Kempen's Schaefer.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
MORNING BID AMERICAS-Dollar surges after central bank barrage, Apple bruised
MORNING BID AMERICAS-Dollar surges after central bank barrage, Apple bruised
Mar 22, 2024
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan The U.S. dollar seems to have emerged a clear winner from the week's magical mystery tour of world central banks - with record high Wall St and world stocks getting a shot across the bow from Apple's ( AAPL ) antitrust bust. A whistle stop look...
China yuan slides to four-month low, state banks step in
China yuan slides to four-month low, state banks step in
Mar 22, 2024
(Updates to market close) SHANGHAI, March 22 (Reuters) - China's yuan declined to a four-month low against the dollar on Friday, breaching a key threshold and prompting state-owned banks to step in to defend the currency. In the spot market, the onshore yuan fell to the weak side of the psychologically important 7.2 per dollar level to hit a low...
European shares set for weekly gains; UK's Phoenix soars
European shares set for weekly gains; UK's Phoenix soars
Mar 22, 2024
* German business sentiment rises in March - Ifo * UK's Phoenix tops STOXX on upbeat outlook & results * Legal & General ( LGGNF ) up on shelving China business licence plan * STOXX 600 up 0.1% (Updated at 0918 GMT) By Shubham Batra March 22 (Reuters) - European shares were largely flat on Friday but maintained record highs...
DIARY-Europe's STOXX 600 corporate earnings week ahead
DIARY-Europe's STOXX 600 corporate earnings week ahead
Mar 22, 2024
March 22 (Reuters) - Diary of Europe's STOXX 600 (.STOXX) corporate earnings for the week ahead EUROPE'S STOXX 600 EARNINGS Company Event Name Start Date Start Time RIC Name (GMT) 25-Mar-2024 13:00 IMI.L IMI PLC IMI PLC Retail Investor Webinar 25-Mar-2024 07:00 KGF.L Kingfisher PLC Full Year 2024 Kingfisher PLC Earnings Release 26-Mar-2024 NTS HRA.MI Hera SpA Q4 2023 Hera...
Copyright 2023-2025 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved