SYDNEY, May 20 (Reuters) - Australia's central bank on
Tuesday cut its main cash rate by 25 basis points to a two-year
low of 3.85% citing a darker global outlook and cooling
inflation at home, though it also remained cautious on further
easing.
The Australian dollar fell 0.4% to $0.6430 and
three-year bond futures rose 5 ticks to 96.40. Swaps
imply a total easing of 57 basis points by the end of the year.
Wrapping up a two-day policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of
Australia said upside risks to inflation had diminished while
international developments were expected to weigh on the
domestic economy.
Markets had been fully priced for an easing given a slowdown
in inflation at home and a darker outlook globally following
last month's announcement of hefty U.S. tariffs on imports.
"Inflation is in the target band and upside risks appear to
have diminished as international developments are expected to
weigh on the economy," the board said in a statement.
"The board assesses that this move will make monetary policy
somewhat less restrictive. It nevertheless remains cautious
about the outlook."
Headline consumer price inflation held at 2.4% in the first
quarter and a key trimmed mean measure of core inflation slowed
to 2.9%, taking it back into the RBA's target band of 2% to 3%
for the first time since late 2021.
"The bank continues to strike a cautious tone about further
rate cuts, noting that weak productivity growth and the tight
labour market continue to put upward pressure on labour costs,"
said Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for Oxford
Economics Australia.
Langcake said the cash rate is still "slightly
restrictive" and expects two more rate cuts in the second half
of the year.
Since the RBA last met in April, the global landscape has
changed drastically.
U.S. President Donald Trump's global trade war has roiled
financial markets and upended business plans. Trump has imposed
10% blanket import duties on the rest of the world, and after a
tariff showdown with China that threatened a global recession,
both agreed to slash sky-high duties on each other's goods for
90 days.
Australia is a major exporter of resources to China and
tariffs on the world's second-biggest economy could hinder
growth there and its demand for commodities such as iron ore.
At home, the flow of data has been mixed, with the
anticipated rebound in consumer spending disappointingly soft.
The labour market, however, remained surprisingly strong, with
the jobless rate staying low at 4.1% where it has roughly been
for over a year now.
Wages growth picked up in the first quarter, but that was
due to government pay rises and should not lead to a damaging
wage-price spiral.
In its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, released on
Tuesday, the RBA also said inflation would be lower and
unemployment higher due to the cascading effects of global trade
tensions, and that was even assuming interest rates were cut as
deeply as markets expected.
It warned that the drag from Trump's tariffs would lower
global growth and prove disinflationary in net terms for
Australia.