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Trump's 50% tariffs on Brazil ramps up tensions,
volatility
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Brazil stocks set to drop, real bruised after slumping
over 2%
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Tariffs could impact U.S. food prices, coffee and juice
imports
LONDON, July 10 (Reuters) - Brazil's financial markets
looked set for a bumpy start on Thursday, with traders still
trying to grasp U.S. President Donald Trump's shock move to slap
50% tariffs on Latin America's largest economy rather than the
10% previously indicated.
Currency volatility gauges were at their highest since the
back end of April's 'Liberation Day' panic, after the real
slumped as much as 2.8% on Wednesday in reaction to what
Deutsche Bank described as an escalation of tensions.
U.S.-listed shares of Brazilian firms and banks sank in
premarket trading, with Itau Unibanco losing 2.7%, Banco
Santander down 2.4% and state oil firm Petrobras down
nearly 1%.
Bond traders were also bracing for the local market to
reopen. Brazil's bonds have been a strong performer in emerging
markets this year, with international dollar-denominated bonds
returning nearly 8% and local real ones a whopping 20%.
MSCI's dollar-denominated Brazil stock index is up nearly
25%, too, helped by the year's 13% surge in the real.
Graham Stock at RBC BlueBay Asset Management said Trump's
reasoning for the 50% tariff level had centred on his grievances
around a court case against right-wing former Brazilian
president Jair Bolsonaro, as well as legal moves against U.S.
social media firms.
"The economic implications are nevertheless fairly modest,"
Stock said, as just over 10% of Brazil's exports go to the U.S.,
and were worth only around 1% of the former's GDP.
"The risk is that President Lula seeks to exploit his
defiance of U.S. interference as a badge of honour in the run-up
to the October 2026 elections, in which case de-escalation
becomes less likely," he said.
Wednesday's decision by Trump followed a threat on Monday to
impose an additional 10% tariff on the BRICS group of developing
nations - of which Brazil is the 'B' - which he called
"anti-American."
The tariffs on Brazil could have a significant impact on
food prices in the United States.
Around a third of the coffee consumed in the U.S., the
world's largest drinker of the beverage, comes from Brazil and
more than half of all the orange juice sold in the U.S. also
comes from the South American agricultural powerhouse.