05:48 AM EST, 11/13/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The benchmark Brent crude oil price is forecast to drop to US$54/barrel in the first quarter of 2026 and average $55/b in the full year 2026 on continually increasing global oil inventories, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook released Wednesday.

However, the Brent forecast for 2026 is $3/b higher than in last month's outlook due to updated assumptions about inventory builds in China and sanctions on Russia, the agency noted. The 2026 outlook is a drop from the forecast average price of $69/b in 2025.

Lower crude prices are expected to contribute to lower retail gasoline and diesel prices in 2026. Gasoline prices are projected to fall below $3/gallon in 2026, down 10% from 2024, and diesel prices to decline to $3.50/gal in 2026, down 7% from 2024, the EIA said.

The benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price is forecast to rise to nearly $3.90 per million British thermal units this winter following seasonal patterns and increased heating demand.

For the full year 2026, gas prices are expected to average $4/MMBtu, 16% higher than in 2025, primarily due to increased liquefied natural gas exports and flat production growth, the EIA reported.

The U.S. is projected to export 14.9 billion cubic feet per day of LNG in 2025, an increase of 25% year over year and a boost from the EIA's forecast in the previous month. LNG exports are expected to increase by an additional 10% in 2026.