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Brent falls as Israel, Hezbollah agree to ceasefire
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Brent falls as Israel, Hezbollah agree to ceasefire
Jun 19, 2026 7:03 AM

* US official tells Reuters Israel, Hezbollah agreed to

ceasefire

* Switzerland says US talks with Iran will not take place on

Friday

* OPEC sticks to robust oil demand outlook, sees no peak on

horizon

* Israel hits Lebanon with deadly strikes, says four of its

troops are killed

(Updates prices, adds Israel, Hezbollah ceasefire agreement)

By Anushree Mukherjee and Seher Dareen

BENGALURU/LONDON, June 19 (Reuters) - Brent crude fell on

Friday after Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire, easing

concerns over disruptions to Middle East oil supplies and

raising hopes of broader de-escalation involving the United

States and Iran.

Brent crude futures were down 85 cents, or 1.1%, at

$79 a barrel by 1303 GMT, and were heading for a weekly decline

of 9.5%.

The front-month July contract for U.S. West Texas

Intermediate crude, which expires on Monday, fell 64

cents, or 0.8%, to $75.96 a barrel, on track to fall nearly 10%

on the week. The more actively traded August contract was

down61 cents at $75.24 a barrel.

Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to a ceasefire which began

at 4 p.m. local time (1300 GMT) on Friday, a senior U.S.

official told Reuters.

"We understand that after the exchange of fire earlier

today, Israel and Hezbollah are now in a ceasefire," the

official said.

"I see limited downside from here. Prices may soften

slightly, but likely won't revisit earlier levels since reserves

are largely depleted and need replenishment with fresh crude,"

said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and

FOREX.com.

Earlier, Switzerland had said U.S. talks with Iranian

negotiators on a pact to end the Middle East conflict would not

take place on Friday, as Vice President JD Vance dropped his

travel plans, adding to uncertainty over the prospects for a

lasting truce.

"It lays bare the rocky road that lies ahead to achieve a

full and uninterrupted resumption of oil flow through the

Strait," said Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil Associates.

"Undoubtedly, headlines around the extended ceasefire

agreement will continue to shape sentiment."

Both benchmarks hit their lowest since the early days of the

conflict on Thursday as several tankers, including three

Saudi-flagged vessels carrying 6 million barrels of crude,

sailed through the strait hours after the U.S. and Iranian

presidents signed an interim deal to end their war.

Analysts expect the deal to release more than 85 million

barrels of oil stranded in the Middle East Gulf into global

markets. The agreement also includes the lifting of U.S.

sanctions on Iranian oil, which would add more supply.

Around 20% of global oil and LNG supply transits Hormuz, but

recovery in flows and production after the U.S.-Iran deal could

take several months.

Citi said its base case, with a 60% probability, sees

sustained normalisation in flows, with oil markets moving into

surplus and prices trending lower over the next six to 12 months

to around $60 to $65 per barrel by the first quarter of 2027.

Commerzbank said oil supply should gradually recover,

lowering its Brent forecast to $80 a barrel by year-end from

$85, while expecting prices to remain above pre-war levels for

most of the coming year.

Iraq's oilfields are ready to resume production and output

will gradually return to normal, restoring previous rates, Oil

Minister Basim Mohammed said.

On the demand front, world demand will rise to 113.3 million

bpd in 2030 from 105.1 million barrels per day in 2025, OPEC

said in its 2026 World Oil Outlook.

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