(Updates at 1030 GMT)
By Alun John
LONDON, June 25 (Reuters) - Germany's 10-year yield
dropped on Tuesday and the now closely watched spread between
German and French bonds tightened a fraction as traders awaited
economic and political developments later in the week.
The major scheduled macro economic event for government
bonds globally is U.S. personal consumption expenditures
inflation on Friday, the Fed's preferred measure. Preliminary
inflation data from several European markets for June is also
due that day.
Those releases will help shape market expectations of
the date of the U.S. Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut
this cycle and the European Central Bank's next move after it
eased policy earlier this month.
Investors are also watching the first round of voting in
the French parliamentary election on Sunday, as well as
Thursday's U.S. presidential election debate.
The German 10-year bond yield on Tuesday fell 3
basis points to 2.39% having traded in a tight range for the
past week.
It dropped sharply earlier in the month as the euro zone
benchmark bond benefited from a flight to safety after French
president Emmanuel Macron called a snap parliamentary election.
France's 10 year bond yield was last 4 bps lower at
3.10% and the spread between France and Germany's 10 year yields
was 71 bps, down a fraction on the day, and down from above 80
bps earlier in the month.
Based on opinion polls, the far right National Rally
(RN) is likely to be the largest party after the election, but
fall short of an overall majority, with the left-wing New
Popular Front (NFP) coalition second.
"Near-term political uncertainty in France has
increased, resulting in a positive political risk premium in
OATs (French government bonds). We expect this to remain until
said uncertainty has been resolved," said analysts at Nomura in
Tuesday note.
"For this, however, we believe either a RN majority or
an impasse with a centrist technocrat appointed as PM is
necessary. We expect uncertainty will remain elevated should the
left-wing coalition NFP win an outright majority and be asked to
form the government."
Fears the RN would adopt a fiscally profligate set of
policies spooked markets initially, though Nomura said remarks
from RN officials that they would respect the EU's fiscal rules
and not implement dramatic fiscal expansion meant they now
thought "financial markets would react favourably to an outright
RN majority".
Elsewhere, Italy's 10-year yield was lower by 2
bps at 3.91%, and the gap between Italian and German bund yields
widened a touch to 151 bps.