04:29 PM EDT, 07/12/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Canada's largest stock market, the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX), gained another 129.39 points or near 0.6% on Friday for on the way to a record closing high of 22,673.52, having also set a fresh record all time intraday high of 22,750.33 along the way today.

It is the second-straight record close for the S&P/TSX Composite Index., which more or less matched gains made Friday on both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite in the United States. Markets are likely buoyed by sentiment shown by the likes of Rosenberg Research, which see three months "in play" for potential U.S. interest rate cuts this year.

The resources heavy TSX may also have been buoyed by elevated commodity prices -- even if their recent drive upwards stalled somewhat today.

Most sectors were higher, but only one rose by more than 1%, that being Base Metals. The Battery Metals Index, Energy and Health Care were all lower.

Of commodities today, gold steadied near a seven-week high midafternoon Friday while the dollar and yields weakened despite a report showing U.S. producer prices rose more than expected last month. Gold for August delivery was last seen down $5.40 to US$2.416.50 per ounce, after rising to the highest since May 22 on Thursday after the U.S. reported its Consumer Price Index rose less than expected last month.

But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower after the US PPI data countered some of the day-prior optimism spurred by the CPI. WTI crude oil for August delivery closed down $0.41 to settle at US$82.21 per barrel, while September Brent crude, the global benchmark, closed down $0.37 to US$85.03.

In terms of the recent U.S. data and what it might all mean for rates there, Rosenberg Research said when it examines the components and weights of both the CPI and PPI data, it is saying the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) deflator, out on July 26, will come in at -0.05% on a month over month basis, and the core at +0.06%. If that is the case, Rosenberg Research noted, then the headline PCE Index will be at +2.3% YoY and +2.5% YoY for the core. It also noted the Fed's projections are +2.6% and +2.8%, respectively, for the end of the year, and were +2.4% for each at the December 2023 projection when the median dot-plot was predicting three rate cuts for this year, not one. In other words, the September, November, and December meetings are "all in play" for a potential rate cut.

Separately, Rosenberg Research for this week's 'Technicals with Dave' note shifted focus to global equity markets, including the TSX. Within the note, Rosenberg said the weekly Coppock Curve -- defined on Investopedia.com as a long-term price momentum indicator used primarily to recognize major downturns and upturns in a stock market index -- has been weak for the TSX since March, as has been the 14-week Rate of Relative Strength Index (RSI) -- which, Investopedia.com says looks at how current price compares to prior prices, and is calculated differently than the rate of change (ROC) indicator used in the Coppock Curve calculation.

Still, despite weakness in these indicators, Rosenberg Research noted the TSX is little changed over the period. It, the note said, seems the 2020-2024 support trend line has been acting as a "nice cushion". The trend line is currently at 21,866 and will be rising through 21,910-22,089 over the next five weeks, the note added.

According to Rosenberg Research, while the weekly Coppock Curve could bottom later this month, an August low seems more likely. "Either way," it said, "the oscillator is expected to only test, but not decisively breach its neutral zero line. Thus, any further weakness is expected to be contained by chart and Fibonacci support within the uptrend from last October's low."

The note added: "With that in mind, there is ample chart support close by. There is support at 21,536-21,466, but it would not be surprising to see the index test last year's breakout point at 21,000-20,500.

"Similarly, a 38.2%-50% retrace of the current rally from last October yields Fibonacci support at 21,087-20,629. Even if that tight chart/Fibonacci support range fails, the November 2022 to October 2023 trading range -- which extends down to 19,600 -- should offer important second support."

As for resistance, Rosenberg Research added, a decisive breakout would open the door for a challenge of 23,237-23,871.