By Krisztina Than
BUDAPEST, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Hungary's forint slipped
after lower-than-expected inflation data for August rekindled
market expectations that the central bank could resume policy
easing at its meeting later this month.
The Hungarian and Czech central banks have been the most
active among central European peers in easing policy since last
year but are beginning to slow or possibly pause their steady
rate cuts.
Before deciding to keep rates flat in August, Hungary's
central bank had delivered 15 consecutive cuts totalling 1,125
basis points. The main rate stands at 6.75%.
Data on Tuesday kept the option of further cuts open - along
with pressure from the government to ease policy more - as it
showed year-on-year inflation eased to 3.4% in August from 4.1%
in July, coming in below a Reuters poll forecast of 3.6%.
It was the lowest rate since February 2021. But core
inflation still came in at 4.6%.
An FX dealer in Budapest said the forint's weakness was
mostly due to domestic factors, but a strong dollar did not help
either.
"The forint is weaker due to comments from policymakers in
the past days on the change expected at the helm of the central
bank, plus the August CPI data indicates that the central bank
may cut interest rates further, which does not help either," the
dealer said.
"This is a multi-factor story, but I would say it is
predominantly domestic factors that are weighing on the forint."
Economy Minister Marton Nagy told Inforadio late on Monday
that the Hungarian bank had "won the fight with inflation",
saying too restrictive a policy would hurt the economy.
The forint, whose weakness in recent months has
been a constraint on the central bank, eased 0.1% to 397.40 to
the euro by 0730 GMT on Tuesday before regaining some ground,
while other currencies in Central Europe firmed slightly.
Czech data showed on Tuesday that inflation stagnated at
2.2% year-on-year last month despite market and central bank
expectations of a drop. But analysts said the data would not
sour policymakers on more rate cuts.
"We believe the central bank board has space to continue its
cycle of rate cuts given the favourable inflation development
and still unflattering performance in the economy," Raiffeisen
said, forecasting a 25-bp cut at the September meeting and
subsequent meetings this year.
The crown slightly backed away from a test of the
psychological 25 per euro level after the data, trading weaker
on the day.
Elsewhere, the Polish zloty and Romanian leu
were both little changed.
CEE SNAPSHOT AT
MARKETS 0930
CET
CURRENCIES
Latest Previo Daily Change
us
trade close change in 2024
Czech 0
Hungary 00
Polish Romania Serbian 00
Note: calculated from 1800 CET
daily
change
Latest Previo Daily Change
us
close change in 2024
Prague 1585.62 1588.7 -0.20% +12.14%
500
Budapes 72329.29 72075. +0.35% +19.32%
t 48
Warsaw 9
Buchare 17634.23 17477. +0.89% +14.72%
st 86
Spread Daily
vs Bund change in
Czech spread
Republi
c
0
Poland
0
FORWARD RATE
AGREEMENTS
3x6 6x9 9x12 3M
interbank
Czech Hungary Poland Note: are for ask prices
FRA
quotes
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