PRAGUE, Aug 4 (Reuters) - Central European currencies
eased a touch on Monday but clung to higher ground after a
weaker U.S. dollar gave them a lift late last week, while
investors awaited inflation data and central bank meetings in
the region in the coming days.
With Czech monetary policymakers widely expected to hold
interest rates steady on Thursday for a second straight meeting,
markets will be looking for any clues over whether the central
bank's easing cycle is at or near an end.
Analysts in a Reuters poll last week saw scope for another
Czech interest rate cut later this year, although markets have
priced out the chances.
Preliminary Czech July inflation data is due on Tuesday,
with expectations that the rate will remain at the upper end of
the bank's 1-percentage-point tolerance band around its 2%
target.
The crown hit its strongest level against the euro toward
the end of July, at 24.53, and has hovered near that mark since.
It traded 0.1% lower from Friday's local close, at
24.594 to the euro in early trade on Monday.
Analysts at bank CSOB said investors will judge the degree
of "hawkishness" from the central bank later this week, on the
heels of last month's inflation reading.
"While a slight undershooting of inflation compared to the
market view might have a negative impact on the crown, strong
hawkish rhetoric should at a minimum balance this out," CSOB
said.
"Developments on global markets, mainly continued losses for
the dollar, will also be important and may boost the crown in
the short term," it added.
The dollar steadied somewhat on Monday after a dismal U.S.
jobs report and President Donald Trump's firing of a top labour
official stunned investors late last week, and led them to ramp
up bets of imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Other currencies in central Europe stayed close to highs,
with the Hungarian forint down 0.1% at 398.35 per
euro, at around 10-month highs against central Europe's main
reference currency. Hungarian inflation data is due on Friday.
The Polish zloty also traded lower at 4.2735 to
the euro, hovering around the middle of its range seen in recent
months.
Romania's leu edged slightly lower to 5.073 per
euro, with a central bank meeting at the end of week expected to
result in unchanged rates.
Preliminary Polish inflation data last week showed price
growth was higher than expected in July, but back in the central
bank's target range, boosting expectations for another interest
rate cut in September.
Bank Millennium analysts said for now, the dollar would be
the driving force supporting the zloty.
"Although a significant move in the EUR/USD exchange rate
already occurred on Friday, its continuation - albeit on a
smaller scale - is possible today," they said in a note.
CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1032 CET
CURRENCIES Latest Previou Daily Change
trade s close change in 2025
Czech 0
Hungary 00 0
Polish Romania Serbian 00 0 %
Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET
STOCKS Latest Previou Daily Change
s close change in 2025
Prague 2238.4 2215.47 +1.04 +27.17
7 00 % %
Budapes 101393 100518. +0.87 +27.82
t .96 47 % %
Warsaw 3 %
Buchare 20181. 20136.6 +0.22 +20.70
st 38 1 % %
BONDS Yield Yield Spread Daily
(bid) change vs change
Bund in
spread
Czech ps
2-year
Czech ps
5-year
Czech ps
10-year
Poland ps
Poland ps
Poland ps
FORWARD RATE 3x6 6x9 9x12 3M
AGREEMENTS interba
nk
Czech Poland Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices