WARSAW, Oct 14 (Reuters) - The Hungarian forint edged
away from last week's lows in thin trading on Monday, while
other regional currencies were muted ahead of a European Central
Bank (ECB) rate decision later this week and with the conflict
in the Middle East in focus.
The euro weakened for an 11th time in 12 sessions as
investors priced in a widely expected 25 basis point interest
rate cut from the European Central Bank at its Oct. 17 meeting,
with data pointing to deteriorating euro zone activity.
By 1021 GMT the Hungarian forint was up 0.2%
against the euro to 400.35, nearing the 400 psychological level
which it slipped across again late last week.
"There is minimal activity in the market, and it is trading
in this 397-402 range, and the central bank is also trying to
keep the forint from quickly weakening further with its
messages," a Budapest-based trader said.
"Last week's inflation (reading for Hungary) came in lower
than expected and the central bank said there will probably be
no rate cut in October, so the rate differential still helps the
forint."
Hungarian central bank Deputy Governor Barnabas Virag last
week flagged a likely pause in the easing of the bank's main
interest rate, which remains the European Union's highest
alongside Romania's, after an escalation of the conflict in the
Middle East and a shift in the U.S. rate outlook pushed the
forint to 18-month-lows.
In Poland, the zloty was steady against the euro
at 4.29, back below the 4.30 psychological level it breached
earlier this month.
"The high resistance of the zloty to the current decline in
EUR-USD is, in our opinion, a good prognosis, as long as we
don't see a larger correction in the markets," ING BSK analysts
wrote in a note.
They pointed out that a lack of details from China on
economic stimulus had limited negative impact on sentiment in
Asia and that in the Middle East there was no major escalation
of tensions in over the weekend.
"This should support the gradual strengthening of EM
(emerging market) currencies, including the zloty. In our
opinion, the EUR/PLN pair may return to 4.27-28 during the
week."
The Czech crown was also largely stable, trading up 0.1% at
25.27 per euro, and pulling away from two-month lows hit earlier
this month.
CEE SNAPSHOT AT
MARKETS 1221 CET
CURRENCI
ES
Latest Previous Daily Change
trade close change in 2024
Czech Hungary Polish Romanian Serbian Note: calculated from 1800 CET
daily
change
Latest Previous Daily Change
close change in 2024
Prague 1600.07 1593.930 +0.39% +13.16%
0
Budapest 74395.92 74264.68 +0.18% +22.73%
Warsaw 2331.03 2333.75 -0.12% -0.51%
Bucharest 17657.91 17727.84 -0.39% +14.88%
Spread Daily
vs Bund change
in
Czech spread
Republic
2-year 5-year 10-year Poland
2-year 5-year 10-year FORWARD
3x6 6x9 9x12 3M
interban
k
Czech Rep 3.80 3.50 3.32 4.15
Hungary 6.64 6.35 6.12 6.34
Poland 5.79 5.49 5.07 5.87
Note: FRA are for ask prices
quotes
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