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CEE MARKETS-Forint pulls away from lows in thin trading
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CEE MARKETS-Forint pulls away from lows in thin trading
Oct 17, 2024 2:33 PM

WARSAW, Oct 14 (Reuters) - The Hungarian forint edged

away from last week's lows in thin trading on Monday, while

other regional currencies were muted ahead of a European Central

Bank (ECB) rate decision later this week and with the conflict

in the Middle East in focus.

The euro weakened for an 11th time in 12 sessions as

investors priced in a widely expected 25 basis point interest

rate cut from the European Central Bank at its Oct. 17 meeting,

with data pointing to deteriorating euro zone activity.

By 1021 GMT the Hungarian forint was up 0.2%

against the euro to 400.35, nearing the 400 psychological level

which it slipped across again late last week.

"There is minimal activity in the market, and it is trading

in this 397-402 range, and the central bank is also trying to

keep the forint from quickly weakening further with its

messages," a Budapest-based trader said.

"Last week's inflation (reading for Hungary) came in lower

than expected and the central bank said there will probably be

no rate cut in October, so the rate differential still helps the

forint."

Hungarian central bank Deputy Governor Barnabas Virag last

week flagged a likely pause in the easing of the bank's main

interest rate, which remains the European Union's highest

alongside Romania's, after an escalation of the conflict in the

Middle East and a shift in the U.S. rate outlook pushed the

forint to 18-month-lows.

In Poland, the zloty was steady against the euro

at 4.29, back below the 4.30 psychological level it breached

earlier this month.

"The high resistance of the zloty to the current decline in

EUR-USD is, in our opinion, a good prognosis, as long as we

don't see a larger correction in the markets," ING BSK analysts

wrote in a note.

They pointed out that a lack of details from China on

economic stimulus had limited negative impact on sentiment in

Asia and that in the Middle East there was no major escalation

of tensions in over the weekend.

"This should support the gradual strengthening of EM

(emerging market) currencies, including the zloty. In our

opinion, the EUR/PLN pair may return to 4.27-28 during the

week."

The Czech crown was also largely stable, trading up 0.1% at

25.27 per euro, and pulling away from two-month lows hit earlier

this month.

CEE SNAPSHOT AT

MARKETS 1221 CET

CURRENCI

ES

Latest Previous Daily Change

trade close change in 2024

Czech Hungary Polish Romanian Serbian Note: calculated from 1800 CET

daily

change

Latest Previous Daily Change

close change in 2024

Prague 1600.07 1593.930 +0.39% +13.16%

0

Budapest 74395.92 74264.68 +0.18% +22.73%

Warsaw 2331.03 2333.75 -0.12% -0.51%

Bucharest 17657.91 17727.84 -0.39% +14.88%

Spread Daily

vs Bund change

in

Czech spread

Republic

2-year 5-year 10-year Poland

2-year 5-year 10-year FORWARD

3x6 6x9 9x12 3M

interban

k

Czech Rep 3.80 3.50 3.32 4.15

Hungary 6.64 6.35 6.12 6.34

Poland 5.79 5.49 5.07 5.87

Note: FRA are for ask prices

quotes

*************************************************

*************

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