By Anita Komuves
BUDAPEST, July 11 (Reuters) - Central European
currencies drifted on Thursday as markets assessed the latest
round of inflation data in Romania, the Czech Republic and
Hungary, with the crown holding off a three-month low.
The Czech crown traded at 25.366 per euro by 0825
GMT, down 0.1% from Wednesday's close, after falling to its
weakest since April - at 25.425 - in the previous session when
it was pressured by a cooler-than-expected inflation print.
Czech inflation eased to 2% year-on-year in June, well below
a Reuters forecast of 2.5% and central bank expectations,
boosting bets that the central bank may not yet slow its
rate-cutting tempo like it has signalled.
The Czech National Bank (CNB) has delivered four straight 50
basis-point (bp) rate cuts.
"Market pricing has moved significantly to the side of a
50bp rate cut for the next meeting," ING said in a note.
"Our economists are currently unchanged in their preference
for a 25bp rate cut for the August meeting, but it is FX that is
likely to be key to the final central bank decision."
Central bank Vice-Governor Eva Zamrazilova in an interview
with news website Seznam Zpravy on Thursday said that the bank
could continue easing policy, although she did not say to what
extent.
In Romania, the leu was steady at 4.9750 versus
the common currency after inflation dropped to 4.94% on-year in
June from 5.12% in the previous month, slightly above
expectations.
"The reading is significantly below current NBR forecast,
which is an argument in favor of our baseline of three more 25
basis points rate cuts this year bringing the key rate at 6.00%
by year-end," BCR bank wrote in a note.
"But on the other hand, the CPI outlook is clouded by ... the
volatile administered energy prices. Because of this, we see
some chances ... of one less cut this year."
The Hungarian forint was also flat. June
inflation, published on Tuesday, came in below expectations and
stayed within the central bank's target range.
The National Bank of Hungary cut its base rate by 25 bps to
7.00% in June and said the scope for more rate cuts in the
second half of this year would be extremely narrow.
Investors are also eying U.S. inflation data, due later in
the day.
"If the indicator surprises with a negative reading compared
to expectations, the dollar could weaken ... under the influence
of strengthening expectations regarding the Fed's interest rate
cut in September," Bank Millennium analysts said in a note.
"At the same time, such a scenario would support the value
of the zloty, which after reaching the level of 4.2505 per EUR
began to weaken slightly," they said.
The zloty edged down 0.05% to trade at 4.262 per
euro.
CEE SNAPSH AT
MARKET OT 1025
S CET
CURREN
CIES
Latest Previo Daily Change
us
trade close change in
2024
Czech 0 0
Hungary 00 00 %
Polish %
Romania Serbian 00 00 % %
Note: calculated 1800
daily from CET
change
Latest Previo Daily Change
us
close change in
2024
Prague 1579.1 1580.2 -0.07% +11.6
4 900 8%
Budapes 71743. 71511. +0.32 +18.3
t 27 70 % 5%
Warsaw 6 9 % %
Buchare 29 82 % 4%
Spread Daily
vs change
Bund in
Czech spread
Republi
c
ps s
0 ps
0 ps
Poland
ps
0 ps
0 ps
FORWAR
D
3x6 6x9 9x12 3M
interb
ank
Czech Hungary Poland Note: are for ask
FRA prices
quotes
***************************************
***********************
(Additional reporting by Luiza Ilie in Bucharest and Alan
Charlish in Warsaw; Editing by Sonia Cheema)