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CEE MARKETS-FX stablise as markets take in softer-than-expected inflation data
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CEE MARKETS-FX stablise as markets take in softer-than-expected inflation data
Jul 11, 2024 2:28 AM

By Anita Komuves

BUDAPEST, July 11 (Reuters) - Central European

currencies drifted on Thursday as markets assessed the latest

round of inflation data in Romania, the Czech Republic and

Hungary, with the crown holding off a three-month low.

The Czech crown traded at 25.366 per euro by 0825

GMT, down 0.1% from Wednesday's close, after falling to its

weakest since April - at 25.425 - in the previous session when

it was pressured by a cooler-than-expected inflation print.

Czech inflation eased to 2% year-on-year in June, well below

a Reuters forecast of 2.5% and central bank expectations,

boosting bets that the central bank may not yet slow its

rate-cutting tempo like it has signalled.

The Czech National Bank (CNB) has delivered four straight 50

basis-point (bp) rate cuts.

"Market pricing has moved significantly to the side of a

50bp rate cut for the next meeting," ING said in a note.

"Our economists are currently unchanged in their preference

for a 25bp rate cut for the August meeting, but it is FX that is

likely to be key to the final central bank decision."

Central bank Vice-Governor Eva Zamrazilova in an interview

with news website Seznam Zpravy on Thursday said that the bank

could continue easing policy, although she did not say to what

extent.

In Romania, the leu was steady at 4.9750 versus

the common currency after inflation dropped to 4.94% on-year in

June from 5.12% in the previous month, slightly above

expectations.

"The reading is significantly below current NBR forecast,

which is an argument in favor of our baseline of three more 25

basis points rate cuts this year bringing the key rate at 6.00%

by year-end," BCR bank wrote in a note.

"But on the other hand, the CPI outlook is clouded by ... the

volatile administered energy prices. Because of this, we see

some chances ... of one less cut this year."

The Hungarian forint was also flat. June

inflation, published on Tuesday, came in below expectations and

stayed within the central bank's target range.

The National Bank of Hungary cut its base rate by 25 bps to

7.00% in June and said the scope for more rate cuts in the

second half of this year would be extremely narrow.

Investors are also eying U.S. inflation data, due later in

the day.

"If the indicator surprises with a negative reading compared

to expectations, the dollar could weaken ... under the influence

of strengthening expectations regarding the Fed's interest rate

cut in September," Bank Millennium analysts said in a note.

"At the same time, such a scenario would support the value

of the zloty, which after reaching the level of 4.2505 per EUR

began to weaken slightly," they said.

The zloty edged down 0.05% to trade at 4.262 per

euro.

CEE SNAPSH AT

MARKET OT 1025

S CET

CURREN

CIES

Latest Previo Daily Change

us

trade close change in

2024

Czech 0 0

Hungary 00 00 %

Polish %

Romania Serbian 00 00 % %

Note: calculated 1800

daily from CET

change

Latest Previo Daily Change

us

close change in

2024

Prague 1579.1 1580.2 -0.07% +11.6

4 900 8%

Budapes 71743. 71511. +0.32 +18.3

t 27 70 % 5%

Warsaw 6 9 % %

Buchare 29 82 % 4%

Spread Daily

vs change

Bund in

Czech spread

Republi

c

ps s

0 ps

0 ps

Poland

ps

0 ps

0 ps

FORWAR

D

3x6 6x9 9x12 3M

interb

ank

Czech Hungary Poland Note: are for ask

FRA prices

quotes

***************************************

***********************

(Additional reporting by Luiza Ilie in Bucharest and Alan

Charlish in Warsaw; Editing by Sonia Cheema)

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