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CEE MARKETS-Geopolitical tensions and firm dollar hurt FX
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CEE MARKETS-Geopolitical tensions and firm dollar hurt FX
Nov 21, 2024 5:02 AM

WARSAW, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Central Eastern European

currencies weakened on Thursday as mounting geopolitical

tensions increased risk aversion among investors, with a

stronger U.S. dollar adding to the pressure.

Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile during

an attack on Ukraine on Thursday, Kyiv's air force said,

following Ukraine's use of Western missiles to strike Russia in

recent days.

Also on Thursday, Russia said a new U.S. ballistic missile

defence base in northern Poland would lead to an increase in the

overall level of nuclear danger, with Warsaw saying "threats"

from Moscow only strengthened the argument for NATO defences.

At 1113 GMT, the Polish zloty was down 0.3%

against the euro at 4.3480, near its weakest levels in over a

week.

"We have some risk aversion. I have an impression that these

geopolitics, we're hearing about them a bit recently and it all

is translating negatively ... not just in Poland but wider," a

Warsaw-based trader said.

The trader also pointed to gloomy 2025 forecasts for the

European Union, including its emerging markets, following the

U.S. re-election of Donald Trump, whose pledges to impose

tariffs, if they materialise, would hurt the bloc's main

economies.

"From all this euro-dollar, which is close to 1.05 or very

important support levels ... this also puts pressure on emerging

markets and the zloty as well," the trader said.

Poland's finance ministry on Thursday sold bonds worth 8

billion zlotys ($1.9 billion) amid demand nearly double that

figure. It also raised a record 97.1 billion yen ($628.4

million) in Samurai bonds.

Hungary's forint weakened 0.4% to 411.60 per euro,

nearing the 22-month low of 412.50 hit earlier this month.

News from the Ukraine-Russia war still dominate market

sentiment, weighing on riskier currencies, a Budapest trader

said.

The Czech crown also slipped against the euro,

trading 0.2% lower at 25.3380.

"From the perspective of domestic and also foreign

fundamentals, the crown market still lacks significant impulses

that would take the currency out of the 25.20-25.40 EUR/CZK

band, where it has been trading since the end of September,"

Czech lender CSOB said.

CEE SNAPSHOT AT

MARKETS 1213 CET

CURRENCI

ES

Latest Previous Daily Change

trade close change in 2024

Czech 25.3380 25.2945 -0.17% -2.51%

crown

Hungary 411.6000 409.7850 -0.44% -6.90%

forint

Polish 4.3480 4.3352 -0.29% -0.08%

zloty

Romanian 4.9765 4.9760 -0.01% -0.04%

leu

Serbian 116.9300 116.9800 +0.04% +0.27%

dinar

Note: calculated from 1800 CET

daily

change

Latest Previous Daily Change

close change in 2024

Prague 1684.30 1688.230 -0.23% +19.11%

0

Budapest 79032.80 79096.82 -0.08% +30.37%

Warsaw 2152.19 2144.68 +0.35% -8.14%

Bucharest 17235.95 17194.06 +0.24% +12.13%

Spread Daily

vs Bund change

in

Czech spread

Republic

2-year 5-year 10-year Poland

2-year 5-year 10-year FORWARD

3x6 6x9 9x12 3M

interban

k

Czech Rep Hungary Poland Note: FRA are for ask prices

quotes

**************************************************

************

($1 = 4.1304 zlotys)

($1 = 154.5300 yen)

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