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CEE MARKETS-Stronger dollar, weaker consumption push zloty off high
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CEE MARKETS-Stronger dollar, weaker consumption push zloty off high
May 23, 2024 2:56 AM

WARSAW, May 23 (Reuters) - The Polish zloty weakened on

Thursday, easing for a second day from a multi-year high as

weaker than expected retail sales data added to the pressure

from a firming dollar.

The dollar hovered near a one-week high on Thursday, a day

after its biggest jump this month against a basket of peers

following minutes of the last Fed meeting that showed some

officials were willing to raise interest rates.

In Poland, data on Thursday showed retail sales rising less

than expected in April, which according to analysts could

increase market expectations for Poland's central bank to resume

easing earlier.

By 0840 GMT the zloty was down 0.3% against the euro to

4.2745, pulling back from the 4.25 level hit on Monday, its

strongest since February 2020.

"This movement started on the eurodollar yesterday. There,

technical indicators had already suggested that the zloty may

weaken and on top of that there's today's disappointment in

retail sales," ING Bank Slaski economist Piotr Poplawski said.

"I think the market is simply focusing on the fact that if

consumer demand is not as strong as people expect, maybe the

Monetary Policy Council will start reducing these rates sooner."

Poplawski said the zloty could slip more this week but only

slightly, owing to market expectations that the National Bank of

Poland (NBP) would ease less than the European Central Bank

(ECB) and to the fact that Poland has a trade surplus.

"There is a risk of the zloty weakening, but I would not

treat it as a change in trend or anything big."

Earlier in May, NBP governor Adam Glapinski said discussions

on easing could only start in early 2025, provided the prospects

for inflation were conducive, after rate-setters kept borrowing

costs steady for a seventh month running.

In Hungary, the forint held flat at 387.30, off of

its 3-1/2-month high hit on Tuesday.

"We got what we expected during and after the rate cut on

Tuesday - there was some profit-taking following the movement of

the eurodollar exchange rate, that explains the forint's

weakening yesterday" a Budapest-based trader said.

"385 proved to be a firm boundary for the firming of the

forint now."

The Czech crown edged up 0.1%, range trading off

of a four month high hit a week ago.

CEE SNAPSHO AT

MARKETS T 1040

CET

CURRENC

IES

Latest Previou Daily Change

s

bid close change in 2024

Czech Hungary 0 0

Polish Romania Note: calculat 1800 CET

daily ed from

change

Latest Previou Daily Change

s

close change in 2024

Prague 1571.55 1574.12 -0.16% +11.14%

00

Budapes 68195.2 67957.0 +0.35% +12.50%

t 8 8

Warsaw 2534.70 2552.70 -0.71% +8.18%

Buchare 17460.1 17494.4 -0.20% +13.59%

st 1 7

Spread Daily

vs Bund change

in

Czech spread

Republi

c

Poland

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