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CEE MARKETS-Weak forint steadies ahead of expected interest rate cut
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CEE MARKETS-Weak forint steadies ahead of expected interest rate cut
Jun 18, 2024 3:06 AM

WARSAW, June 18 (Reuters) - The forint held steady on

Tuesday away from a three-month low it hit last week, ahead of

the Hungarian central bank's meeting that is widely expected to

result in a continued rate-cut drive.

The National Bank of Hungary (NBH), which began easing its

base interest rate in October, is expected to trim a further 25

basis points off the current 7.25% on Tuesday, according to a

slim majority of respondents in Reuters poll, while the rest

forecast a 50 basis point cut.

By 0846 GMT the Hungarian forint was flat at 396

per euro, holding on to Monday's gains which saw it pulling away

from its weakest level since mid March at the end of last week.

"Today the focus is on the NBH interest rate decision, until

then it (EURHUF) may remain on the sidelines," MBH Bank said in

a note.

"In our view, with the forint weakening again more strongly

in recent days and the Fed's expected rate cut postponed, the

MNB will be cautious and will only cut rates by 25bps."

Monday's session gave some respite to the region's

currencies, after the strengthening of the dollar this month,

supported last week by a more hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve and

the fallout of European Parliament elections that pressured

riskier assets, including Central European currencies.

The Polish zloty slipped 0.1% against the euro to

4.3480, also largely keeping the previous day's gains after

hitting its weakest level since late January on Friday.

"Yesterday's trading on the local FX suggests that the

domestic currency (zloty) should now be less sensitive to

negative external signals," Poland's state-owned development

bank BGK wrote in a note.

"Today, we expect a relatively calm session in the range of

PLN 4.34-4.36 per euro."

The Czech crown traded 0.1% lower at 24.7450, remaining

anchored around stronger levels, with market focus turned toward

the Czech central bank rate meeting next week at which

policymakers are expected to slow rate cuts.

Czech central bank Vice-Governor Eva Zamrazilova said in a

Reuters interview on Monday that she would decide between a 25

bps and 50 bps interest rate cut, after assessing the effects of

a firmer crown versus still strong growth in services prices.

CSOB said the crown was staying stuck around the 24.70 per

euro level.

"Producer price data released (on Monday) did not surprise

and generally confirmed the disinflationary tendencies in the

domestic economy," CSOB said.

"This is good news for the central bank towards further

easing of monetary policy... Uncertainty about the June vote is

high, but we still cautiously lean toward a 25 bp rate cut."

CEE SNAPSHO AT

MARKETS T 1046 CET

CURRENC

IES

Latest Previous Daily Change

bid close change in 2024

Czech Hungary 0

Polish Romanian Note: calculat 1800

daily ed from CET

change

Latest Previous Daily Change

close change in 2024

Prague 1527.10 1521.840 +0.35% +8.00%

0

Budapest 69851.6 69711.91 +0.20% +15.23

2 %

Warsaw 2479.20 2458.79 +0.83% +5.81%

Bucharest 17940.3 17879.99 +0.34% +16.71

0 %

Spread Daily

vs Bund change

in

Czech spread

Republic

2-year s

5-year s

10-year s

Poland

2-year s

5-year s

10-year s

Note: FRA are for

quotes ask

prices

****************************

****************************

******

(Reporting by Karol Badohal in Warsaw and Boldizsar Gyori in

Budapest; Editing by Shinjini Ganguli)

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