PRAGUE, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Poland's zloty led losses in
central Europe on Thursday, retreating close to two-month lows
it hit earlier this month, as a firmer dollar continued to drag
on the region ahead of an expected European Central Bank
interest rate cut.
The ECB is likely to lower interest rates for a third time
this year later in the day. At the same time, central banks in
Hungary and the Czech Republic are showing more caution in
easing campaigns started last year.
Expectations of a cut by the ECB have been a support factor
for central Europe's currencies as lower euro zone rates create
a more advantageous rate differential for the region.
But the dollar on Thursday also touched a multi-week high,
on the back of a potential Donald Trump win at the upcoming U.S.
election. That move cut into the risk appetite and put a drag on
central Europe.
"The biggest issue here is the support, at least in polls,
for Donald Trump," said Piotr Poplawski, senior economist at
ING.
"This is something quite negative for emerging market
currencies and the market started pricing in the whole Trump
trade scenario. In this scenario we have the (United States)
looking more isolationist."
The zloty bore the brunt, losing 0.5% to 4.32 to
the euro and returning to the weak side of the psychological
level of 4.30 after recent firming.
In Hungary, the forint steadied at 401.60 to the
euro.
"The commentary from the ECB will be the key thing to watch
later today, that can give some direction to the market," an FX
trader in Budapest said.
Markets were also watching an economic conference in
Budapest where Deputy Central Bank Governor Barnabas Virag is
due to speak, only days before a central bank rate meeting
scheduled for Oct. 22.
Virag last week flagged a likely pause in the easing of the
bank's main interest rate - which remains the European Union's
highest alongside Romania's - after an escalation of the
conflict in the Middle East and a shift in the U.S. rate outlook
pushed the forint to 18-month lows beyond the big 400 per euro
level.
The Czech crown was also treading water at softer
levels after weakening this month, as it inched up 0.1% to
25.268 to the euro. Romania's leu was a tad stronger
at 4.974 to the euro.
CEE SNAPSHOT AT
MARKETS 1138
CET
CURRENCIES
Latest Previo Daily Change
us
trade close change in 2024
Czech 0
Hungary 00
Polish Romania Serbian 00
Note: calcula 1800 CET
daily ted
change from
Latest Previo Daily Change
us
close change in 2024
Prague 1616.82 1612.5 +0.27% +14.34
200 %
Budapes 75212.10 75170. +0.06% +24.07
t 39 %
Warsaw 0
Buchare 17464.76 17485. -0.12% +13.62
st 07 %
Spread Daily
vs Bund change
in
Czech spread
Republi
c
Poland
FORWARD RATE
AGREEMENTS
3x6 6x9 9x12 3M
interba
nk
Czech Hungary Poland Note: are for
FRA ask
quotes prices
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