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CEE MARKETS-Zloty edges lower ahead of Polish interest rates decision
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CEE MARKETS-Zloty edges lower ahead of Polish interest rates decision
Sep 6, 2024 12:07 PM

WARSAW, Sept 4 (Reuters) - The Polish zloty eased a

touch on Wednesday ahead of the central bank's interest rate

decision later in the day, with analysts expecting stable

borrowing costs amid rebounding inflation.

All 29 respondents in a Reuters poll forecast no change in

the National Bank of Poland's monetary policy, meaning the cost

of credit will have remained unchanged since October.

By 1020 GMT the zloty eased 0.1% against the euro

to 4.2820, near the mid point of the firm range it has stayed in

since August.

The Polish currency remains Central Eastern Europe's top

performer, gaining almost 1.5% this year, supported by steady

interest rates and unblocked funds from the European Union.

Analysts will closely scrutinise the Monetary Policy

Council's (MPC) press release following the rate decision and on

Thursday's conference by the NBP governor for signs of when rate

changes could resume.

"On the one hand, in August, Governor (Adam) Glapinski

joined those MPC members who see room for interest rate cuts in

2025, which may translate into a softening of the official

stance of the entire Council," ING BSK said in a note.

"On the other hand, solid GDP data in 2Q24, including

investment growth and further inflation growth in August, and a

higher than previously planned fiscal imbalance in 2024-25 speak

in favor of maintaining a hawkish stance."

In August Glapinski said Polish policymakers could discuss

changing monetary policy before 2026, softening his previous,

more hawkish outlook.

Data last week showed Poland's economic growth picking up

pace in the second quarter, reaching is fastest year-on-year

rate in almost two years on the back of private consumption and

fast wage growth.

Also last week, Poland's draft budget for 2025 forecast the

country's general deficit rising to 5.5% of GDP next year.

In Hungary, the forint firmed 0.2% against the

euro on Wednesday to 393.30, halting its losses after it

weakened about half a percent in the previous session.

"A risk-averse mood appeared in markets yesterday, which

pushed the dollar stronger, ... This mood could continue today,

so I do not expect any big firming in the forint. It might as

well weaken a bit, as far as 394.50," a currency trader in

Budapest said.

Meanwhile, the Czech crown edged up 0.1% to

25.0770 per euro, hovering off of the two-month highs it hit in

August.

CEE SNAPSHOT AT

MARKETS 1220 CET

CURRENCI

ES

Latest Previous Daily Change

trade close change in 2024

Czech 25.0770 25.1010 +0.10% -1.50%

crown

Hungary 393.3000 394.1500 +0.22% -2.57%

forint

Polish 4.2820 4.2785 -0.08% +1.46%

zloty

Romanian 4.9730 4.9737 +0.01% +0.03%

leu

Serbian 116.9700 117.0200 +0.04% +0.24%

dinar

Note: calculated from 1800 CET

daily

change

Latest Previous Daily Change

close change in 2024

Prague 1584.51 1591.320 -0.43% +12.06%

0

Budapest 72438.79 72982.36 -0.74% +19.50%

Warsaw 2395.41 2409.50 -0.58% +2.24%

Bucharest 18020.21 18111.09 -0.50% +17.23%

Spread Daily

vs Bund change

in

Czech spread

Republic

2-year 5-year 10-year Poland

2-year 5-year 10-year FORWARD

3x6 6x9 9x12 3M

interban

k

Czech Rep Hungary Poland Note: FRA are for ask prices

quotes

**************************************************

************

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